Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34405203›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Europe2021

Clinical burden, risk factor impact and outcomes following myocardial infarction and stroke: A 25-year individual patient level linkage study.

Anoop S V Shah, Kuan Ken Lee, Jesús Alberto Rodríguez Pérez, Desmond Campbell, Federica Astengo, Jennifer Logue, Peter James Gallacher, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Rong Bing, Shirjel R Alam and 8 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet regional health. Europe, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed
5.0field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 36 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors at 6 institutions in 1 country.

Anoop S V ShahDepartment of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,London, United Kingdom.
Kuan Ken LeeBHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Jesús Alberto Rodríguez PérezInstitute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Desmond CampbellInstitute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Federica AstengoBHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Jennifer LogueLancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
Peter James GallacherBHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Srinivasa Vittal KatikireddiInstitute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Rong BingBHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Shirjel R AlamDepartment of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,London, United Kingdom.
Atul AnandBHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Catherine SudlowUsher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Colin M FischbacherPublic HealthScotland, United Kingdom.
Jim LewseyInstitute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Pablo PerelDepartment of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,London, United Kingdom.
David E NewbyBHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Nicholas L MillsBHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
David A McAllisterInstitute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
University of Edinburgh · GBUniversity of Glasgow · GBLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBImperial College Healthcare NHS Trust · GBLancaster University · GBPublic Health England · GB

Funding

British Heart Foundation CH/09/002/26360British Heart Foundation CH/F/21/90010British Heart Foundation FS/16/14/32023British Heart Foundation FS/18/25/33454British Heart Foundation FS/19/17/34172Chief Scientist Office SCAF/15/02Chief Scientist Office SPHSU17Medical Research Council MC_UU_00022/2Wellcome Trust 201492/Z/16/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundUnderstanding trends in the incidence and outcomes of myocardial infarction and stroke, and how these are influenced by changes in cardiovascular risk factors can inform health policy and healthcare provision.

methodsWe identified all patients 30 years or older with myocardial infarction or stroke in Scotland. Risk factor levels were determined from national health surveys. Incidence, potential impact fractions and burden attributable to risk factor changes were calculated. Risk of subsequent fatal and non-fatal events (myocardial infarction, stroke, bleeding and heart failure hospitalization) were calculated with multi-state models.

findingsFrom 1990 to 2014, there were 372,873 (71±13 years) myocardial infarctions and 290,927 (74±13 years) ischemic or hemorrhagic strokes. Age-standardized incidence per 100,000 fell from 1,069 (95% confidence interval, 1,024-1,116) to 276 (263-290) for myocardial infarction and from 608 (581-636) to 188 (178-197) for ischemic stroke. Systolic blood pressure, smoking and cholesterol decreased, but body-mass index increased, and diabetes prevalence doubled. Changes in risk factors accounted for a 74% (57-91%) reduction in myocardial infarction and 68% (55-83%) reduction in ischemic stroke. Following myocardial infarction, the risk of death decreased (30% to 20%), but non-fatal events increased (20% to 24%) whereas the risk of both death (47% to 34%) and non-fatal events (22% to 17%) decreased following stroke.

interpretationOver the last 25 years, substantial reductions in myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke incidence are attributable to major shifts in risk factor levels. Deaths following the index event decreased for both myocardial infarction and stroke, but rates remained substantially higher for stroke.

fundingBritish heart foundation.

Identifiers

PMID34405203
PMCPMC8351196
OpenAlexW3171932743

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.