Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34404735›Full record

ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2021

Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2.

Caroline E Wagner, Chadi M Saad-Roy, Sinead E Morris, Rachel E Baker, Michael J Mina, Jeremy Farrar, Edward C Holmes, Oliver G Pybus, Andrea L Graham, Ezekiel J Emanuel and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 63 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
63citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

63 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. Social dilemma of nonpharmaceutical interventions: Determinants of dynamic compliance and behavioral shifts.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
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  16. The evolution of post-infection mortality.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024
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  19. Cost-utility analysis of molnupiravir for high-risk, community-based adults with COVID-19: an economic evaluation of the PANORAMIC trial.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2024
    Article
  20. Article

3 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Caroline E Wagner *Department of Bioengineering, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 0C3, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-5193-2797
Chadi M Saad-Roy *Lewis-Sigler Institute for Integrative Genomics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2217-3071
Sinead E MorrisDepartment of Pathology and Cell Biology, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY 10032, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8626-1698
Rachel E BakerDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2661-8103
Michael J MinaDepartment of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0674-5762
Jeremy FarrarThe Wellcome Trust, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2700-623X
Edward C HolmesMarie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-9596-3552
Oliver G PybusDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8797-2667
Andrea L GrahamDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6580-2755
Ezekiel J EmanuelDepartment of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9796-5735
Simon A LevinDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8216-5639
C Jessica E MetcalfDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3166-7521
Bryan T GrenfellDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3227-5909

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Vaccines provide powerful tools to mitigate the enormous public health and economic costs that the ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic continues to exert globally, yet vaccine distribution remains unequal among countries. To examine the potential epidemiological and evolutionary impacts of “vaccine nationalism,” we extend previous models to include simple scenarios of stockpiling between two regions. In general, when vaccines are widely available and the immunity they confer is robust, sharing doses minimizes total cases across regions. A number of subtleties arise when the populations and transmission rates in each region differ, depending on evolutionary assumptions and vaccine availability. When the waning of natural immunity contributes most to evolutionary potential, sustained transmission in low-access regions results in an increased potential for antigenic evolution, which may result in the emergence of novel variants that affect epidemiological characteristics globally. Overall, our results stress the importance of rapid, equitable vaccine distribution for global control of the pandemic.

Indexed as

Global HealthCOVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesEmigration and ImmigrationEvolution, MolecularHumansImmune EvasionModels, TheoreticalSARS-CoV-2Strategic StockpileVaccination CoverageCOVID-19 Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID34404735
PMCPMC9835930

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.