ArticleeLife2021
How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?
Article in eLife, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
58 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 111 citations in OpenAlex.
- How plastic are upper thermal limits? A comparative study in tsetse (family: Glossinidae) and wider Diptera.Journal of thermal biology · 2023Pooled it
- Evolution of thermal performance curves: A meta-analysis of selection experiments.Journal of evolutionary biology · 2023Pooled it
- Agriculture-urban interfaces, social vulnerability and climate change shape West Nile virus risk across the United States.Biology letters · 2026Article
- Heatwaves Constrain the Future Persistence of Mosquito Vectors in Europe.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Suitable ecological niches of invasive malaria vector under present and projected climatic conditions in South of Iran.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Diurnal fluctuating temperature and larval resource level interact to influence the life history and behaviour of disease-transmitting mosquitoes.Parasites & vectors · 2026Article
- Modeling Phenological and Physiological Responses to Climate Warming in a Hypothetical Migratory Songbird-Mosquito System.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Phenotypic variation in populations of the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, and implications for predicting the effects of temperature and climate change on dengue transmission.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- A Scoping Review of Mosquito Vector Range Shifts: Widespread Expansions and Evidence Gaps in Climate Attribution.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Article
- Molecules to spillover: how climate warming impacts mosquito-borne viruses.Current opinion in virology · 2025Review
- Aedes albopictus Is Rapidly Invading Its Climatic Niche in France: Wider Implications for Biting Nuisance and Arbovirus Control in Western Europe.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Rising temperatures contribute to West Nile virus diversification and increased transmission potential.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Thermal adaptation inProceedings. Biological sciences · 2025Article
- Thermal tolerance of Aedes aegypti mosquito eggs is associated with urban adaptation and human interactions.Journal of thermal biology · 2025Article
- Modelling the effects of diurnal temperature variation on malaria infection dynamics in mosquitoes.Communications biology · 2025Article
- A systematic review of climate-change driven range shifts in mosquito vectors.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Changing Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in two villages of northeastern Tanzania between 2003 and 2021 in relation to vectors, interventions and climatic factors.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- The Temperature-Associated Effects of Rift Valley Fever Virus Infections in Mosquitoes and Climate-Driven Epidemics: A Review.Viruses · 2025Review
- Elevated developmental temperatures below the lethal limit reduce Aedes aegypti fertility.The Journal of experimental biology · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 7 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.