ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021
Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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24 citing papers in PubMed, 175 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Do early warning signals of tipping points lead to better decisions?Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Weakening AMOC reduces ocean carbon uptake and increases the social cost of carbon.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Synthesis of evidence yields high social cost of carbon due to structural model variation and uncertainties.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
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- The economic commitment of climate change.Nature · 2024Article
- Policies, projections, and the social cost of carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 model.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Prioritize carbon pricing over fossil-fuel subsidy reform.iScience · 2024Review
- Slowly but surely: Exposure of communities and infrastructure to subsidence on the US east coast.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- The social costs of tropical cyclones.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Opportunities for synthetic data in nature and climate finance.Frontiers in artificial intelligence · 2023Article
- Economic impacts of melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.Nature communications · 2022Article
- The missing risks of climate change.Nature · 2022Review
- Article
- Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Climate scientists have long emphasized the importance of climate tipping points like thawing permafrost, ice sheet disintegration, and changes in atmospheric circulation. Yet, save for a few fragmented studies, climate economics has either ignored them or represented them in highly stylized ways. We provide unified estimates of the economic impacts of all eight climate tipping points covered in the economic literature so far using a meta-analytic integrated assessment model (IAM) with a modular structure. The model includes national-level climate damages from rising temperatures and sea levels for 180 countries, calibrated on detailed econometric evidence and simulation modeling. Collectively, climate tipping points increase the social cost of carbon (SCC) by ∼25% in our main specification. The distribution is positively skewed, however. We estimate an ∼10% chance of climate tipping points more than doubling the SCC. Accordingly, climate tipping points increase global economic risk. A spatial analysis shows that they increase economic losses almost everywhere. The tipping points with the largest effects are dissociation of ocean methane hydrates and thawing permafrost. Most of our numbers are probable underestimates, given that some tipping points, tipping point interactions, and impact channels have not been covered in the literature so far; however, our method of structural meta-analysis means that future modeling of climate tipping points can be integrated with relative ease, and we present a reduced-form tipping points damage function that could be incorporated in other IAMs.
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