Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34396526›Full record

ArticleHealth services research2022

Predictive modeling of service discontinuation in transitional age youth with recent behavioral health service use.

Christopher Bory, Timothy Schmutte, Larry Davidson, Robert Plant

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Health services research, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Christopher BoryBeacon Health Options, Rocky Hill, Connecticut, USA.
Timothy SchmutteDepartment of Psychiatry, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1711-1906
Larry DavidsonDepartment of Psychiatry, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Robert PlantBeacon Health Options, Rocky Hill, Connecticut, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo develop and test predictive models of discontinuation of behavioral health service use within 12 months in transitional age youth with recent behavioral health service use. DATA SOURCES: Administrative claims for Medicaid beneficiaries aged 15-26 years in Connecticut. STUDY

designWe compared the performance of a decision tree, random forest, and gradient boosting machine learning algorithms to logistic regression in predicting service discontinuation within 12 months among beneficiaries using behavioral health services. DATA EXTRACTION: We identified 33,532 transitional age youth with ≥1 claim for a primary behavioral health diagnosis in 2016 and Medicaid enrollment of ≥11 months in 2016 and ≥11 months in 2017. PRINCIPAL

findingsClassification accuracy for identifying youth who discontinued behavioral health service use was highest for gradient boosting (80%, AUC = 0.86), decision tree (79%, AUC = 0.84), and random forest (79%, AUC = 0.86), as compared with logistic regression (71%, AUC = 0.71).

conclusionsPredictive models based on Medicaid claims can assist in identifying transitional age youth who are at risk of discontinuing from behavioral health care within 12 months, thus allowing for proactive assessment and outreach to promote continuity of care for younger persons who have behavioral health needs.

Indexed as

AdolescentConnecticutHumansMaleMental DisordersMental Health ServicesModels, OrganizationalPatient Acceptance of Health CareTime FactorsTransitional CareUnited StatesYoung Adultemerging adultsmachine learningmental health services

Identifiers

PMID34396526
PMCPMC8763280

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.