ArticleResults in physics2021
Estimation of epidemiological parameters for COVID-19 cases using a stochastic SEIRS epidemic model with vital dynamics.
Article in Results in physics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Construction of effective reproduction number of infectious disease individuals based on spatiotemporal discriminant search model: take hand-foot-mouth disease as an example.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Article
- Article
- Vaccine breakthrough and rebound infections modeling: Analysis for the United States and the ten U.S. HHS regions.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using a compartmental model with time-varying parameters fitted by a genetic algorithm.Expert systems with applications · 2023Article
- Stationary distribution and probability density for a stochastic SEIR-type model of coronavirus (COVID-19) with asymptomatic carriers.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2023Article
- Modeling the time-dependent transmission rate using gaussian pulses for analyzing the COVID-19 outbreaks in the world.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- An agent-based nested model integrating within-host and between-host mechanisms to predict an epidemic.PloS one · 2023Article
- Analysis of multi-strain infection of vaccinated and recovered population through epidemic model: Application to COVID-19.PloS one · 2022Article
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1 author.
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Abstract
We estimate and analyze the time-dependent parameters: transmission rate, symptomatic recovery rate, immunity rate, infection noise intensities, and the effective reproduction number for the United States COVID-19 cases for the period 01/22/2020-02/25/2021 using an innovative generalized method of moments estimation scheme. We assume the disease-dynamic is described by a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS) epidemic model, where the infected class is divided into the asymptomatic infected, and symptomatic infectious classes. Stochasticity appears in the model due to fluctuations in the disease's transmission and recovery rates. The disease eradication threshold is derived from the reproduction number. The estimated parameters are used to model the disease outbreak's possible trajectories. Our analysis reveals that current interventions are having positive effects on the transmission and recovery rates. The analysis is demonstrated using the daily United States COVID-19 infection and recovered cases for the period: 01/22/2020-02/25/2021.
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