ArticleGenus2021
Assessing excess mortality in times of pandemics based on principal component analysis of weekly mortality data-the case of COVID-19.
Article in Genus, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Measuring the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Northern Territory, Australia.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- Data from Emergency Medical Service Activities: A Novel Approach to Monitoring COVID-19 and Other Infectious Diseases.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Excess mortality and years of life lost from 2020 to 2023 in France: a cohort study of the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Routine Vaccination Uptake in Kenya.Vaccines · 2024Article
- Estimation and probabilistic projection of age- and sex-specific mortality rates across Brazilian municipalities between 2010 and 2030.Population health metrics · 2024Article
- The spread in time and space of COVID-19 pandemic waves: the Italian experience from mortality data analyses.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Excess mortality among people with communicable diseases over a 30-year period, Victoria, Australia: a whole of population cohort study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2023Article
- No Excess of Mortality from Lung Cancer during the COVID-19 Pandemic in an Area at Environmental Risk: Results of an Explorative Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Observational
- The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions - Toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach.Economics and human biology · 2023Review
- Assessment of Excess Mortality in Italy in 2020-2021 as a Function of Selected Macro-Factors.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Real-time mortality statistics during the COVID-19 pandemic: A proposal based on Spanish data, January-March, 2021.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Germany.Deutsches Arzteblatt international · 2021Article
- Institutions and the uneven geography of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.Journal of regional science · 2021Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The COVID-19 outbreak has called for renewed attention to the need for sound statistical analyses to monitor mortality patterns and trends over time. Excess mortality has been suggested as the most appropriate indicator to measure the overall burden of the pandemic in terms of mortality. As such, excess mortality has received considerable interest since the outbreak of COVID-19 began. Previous approaches to estimate excess mortality are somewhat limited, as they do not include sufficiently long-term trends, correlations among different demographic and geographic groups, or autocorrelations in the mortality time series. This might lead to biased estimates of excess mortality, as random mortality fluctuations may be misinterpreted as excess mortality. We propose a novel approach that overcomes the named limitations and draws a more realistic picture of excess mortality. Our approach is based on an established forecasting model that is used in demography, namely, the Lee-Carter model. We illustrate our approach by using the weekly age- and sex-specific mortality data for 19 countries and the current COVID-19 pandemic as a case study. Our findings show evidence of considerable excess mortality during 2020 in Europe, which affects different countries, age, and sex groups heterogeneously. Our proposed model can be applied to future pandemics as well as to monitor excess mortality from specific causes of death.
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