ArticleEuropean journal of epidemiology2021
Prediction or causality? A scoping review of their conflation within current observational research.
Article in European journal of epidemiology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 59 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
59 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The Controversial Issue of Hypervitaminosis B12 as Prognostic Factor of Mortality: Global Lessons from a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Nutrients · 2025Pooled it
- Prediction models for the complication incidence and survival rate of dental implants-a systematic review and critical appraisal.International journal of implant dentistry · 2025Pooled it
- Proteomics for heart failure risk stratification: a systematic review.BMC medicine · 2024Pooled it
- Understanding the contribution of lifestyle in breast cancer risk prediction: a systematic review of models applicable to Europe.BMC cancer · 2023Pooled it
- Causal Model Building in the Context of Cardiac Rehabilitation: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Pooled it
- Torque teno virus load as marker of rejection and infection in solid organ transplantation - A systematic review and meta-analysis.Reviews in medical virology · 2023Pooled it
- Prognostic Modeling for the Failure of Intravenous Methylprednisolone and the Risk of Visual Disability in AQP4-IgG Positive NMOSD-ON.Translational vision science & technology · 2026Trial
- A Facial Foundation Model for Clinical Biomarker Prediction and Real-World Mobile Deployment.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2026Article
- Methodological Considerations for Studies in Sport and Exercise Science with Women as Participants Part II: Guidance for Applied Studies in Elite Female Athletes.Sports medicine (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2026Article
- Explainable Machine Learning Predictive Models for Surgical Site Infections: Scoping Review.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Article
- Trimethylamine N-oxide and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events: results of umbrella review and meta-analysis.Nutrition & metabolism · 2026Article
- Social and Health Conditions That Drive the Need and Demand for, Use of and Expenditure on Social Care in the UK: A Systematic Review.Cochrane evidence synthesis and methods · 2026Review
- Digital Phenotyping in Health Research: Scoping Review of Methods, Gaps, and Opportunities.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Article
- Associated-Factor Studies in Biomedical Research: Foundations, Limitations, and Criteria for Appropriate Use.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Using causal frameworks to reduce bias in observational TB research: a comparison of model-building approaches.IJTLD open · 2026Article
- ExposoGenomics: integrating genome and exposome as jointly dynamic systems for causal discovery and precision health.Human genomics · 2026Review
- Applying Artificial Intelligence and machine learning in precision nutrition.Nature communications · 2026Review
- ABCG2 Genetic Variability in Drug Exposure and Toxicity: Implications for Clinical Practice.Toxics · 2026Review
- The Risks of Misunderstanding the Term "Risk Factor": A Primer with Suggestions to Improve Sports Medicine.Sports medicine (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2026Review
- Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for sedative-associated delirium during acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation.Journal of critical care · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Etiological research aims to uncover causal effects, whilst prediction research aims to forecast an outcome with the best accuracy. Causal and prediction research usually require different methods, and yet their findings may get conflated when reported and interpreted. The aim of the current study is to quantify the frequency of conflation between etiological and prediction research, to discuss common underlying mistakes and provide recommendations on how to avoid these. Observational cohort studies published in January 2018 in the top-ranked journals of six distinct medical fields (Cardiology, Clinical Epidemiology, Clinical Neurology, General and Internal Medicine, Nephrology and Surgery) were included for the current scoping review. Data on conflation was extracted through signaling questions. In total, 180 studies were included. Overall, 26% (n = 46) contained conflation between etiology and prediction. The frequency of conflation varied across medical field and journal impact factor. From the causal studies 22% was conflated, mainly due to the selection of covariates based on their ability to predict without taking the causal structure into account. Within prediction studies 38% was conflated, the most frequent reason was a causal interpretation of covariates included in a prediction model. Conflation of etiology and prediction is a common methodological error in observational medical research and more frequent in prediction studies. As this may lead to biased estimations and erroneous conclusions, researchers must be careful when designing, interpreting and disseminating their research to ensure this conflation is avoided.
Indexed as
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.