ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2021
A Bayesian estimate of the early COVID-19 infection fatality ratio in Brazil based on a random seroprevalence survey.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Age-specific SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rates derived from serological data vary with income and income inequality.PloS one · 2023Article
- Risk Factors Associated with Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 during the Omicron Wave in Brazil.Bioengineering (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Recursive state and parameter estimation of COVID-19 circulating variants dynamics.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Seroconversion in Response to Infection and Vaccination: a Time Series Local Study in Brazil.Microbiology spectrum · 2022Article
- Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific anti-spike IgM, IgG, and anti-nucleocapsid IgG antibodies during the second wave of the pandemic: A population-based cross-sectional survey across Kashmir, India.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Comparing COVID-19 risk factors in Brazil using machine learning: the importance of socioeconomic, demographic and structural factors.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Bayesian inference across multiple models suggests a strong increase in lethality of COVID-19 in late 2020 in the UK.PloS one · 2021Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundA number of estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) of SARS-CoV-2 in different countries have been published. In Brazil, the fragile political situation, together with socioeconomic and ethnic diversity, could result in substantially different IFR estimates.
methodsWe infer the IFR in Brazil in 2020 by combining three datasets. We compute the prevalence via the population-based seroprevalence survey, EPICOVID19-BR. For the fatalities we obtain the absolute number using the public Painel Coronavírus dataset and the age-relative number using the public SIVEP-Gripe dataset. The time delay between the development of antibodies and subsequent fatality is estimated via the SIVEP-Gripe dataset. We obtain the IFR for each survey stage and 27 federal states. We include the effect of fading IgG antibody levels by marginalizing over the test detectability time window.
resultsWe infer a country-wide average IFR (maximum posterior and 95% CI) of 1.03% (0.88-1.22%) and age-specific IFRs of 0.032% (0.023-0.041%) [< 30 years], 0.22% (0.18-0.27%) [30-49 years], 1.2% (1.0-1.5%) [50-69 years], and 3.0% (2.4-3.9%) [≥ 70 years]. We find that the fatality ratio in the country increased significantly at the end of June 2020, likely due to the increased strain on the health system.
conclusionsOur IFR estimate is based on data and does not rely on extrapolating models. This estimate sets a baseline value with which future medications and treatment protocols may be confronted.
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