Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34386249›Full record

ArticleRoyal Society open science2021

SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return.

Jessica Enright, Edward M Hill, Helena B Stage, Kirsty J Bolton, Emily J Nixon, Emma L Fairbanks, Maria L Tang, Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Louise Dyson, Chris J Budd and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Royal Society open science, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Jessica EnrightSchool of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0266-3292
Edward M HillThe Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2992-2004
Helena B StageJoint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, https://maths.org/juniper/.ORCID 0000-0001-9938-8452
Kirsty J BoltonCentre for Mathematical Medicine and Biology, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0487-4701
Emily J NixonJoint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, https://maths.org/juniper/.ORCID 0000-0002-1626-9296
Emma L FairbanksCentre for Mathematical Medicine and Biology, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1598-962X
Maria L TangSchool of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Loughborough, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9671-8302
Ellen Brooks-PollockJoint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, https://maths.org/juniper/.ORCID 0000-0002-5984-4932
Louise DysonThe Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9788-4858
Chris J BuddSchool of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4536-1662
Rebecca B HoyleSchool of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1645-1071
Lars ScheweUniversity of Edinburgh, School of Mathematics, James Clerk Maxwell Building, Peter Guthrie Tait Road, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3778-262X
Julia R GogJoint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, https://maths.org/juniper/.ORCID 0000-0003-1240-7214
Michael J TildesleyThe Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6875-7232

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC_19067Medical Research Council MC_PC_19067/2Medical Research Council MR/V009761/1Medical Research Council MR/V038613/1Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in late 2020 was consistent with the expected importation of infection from arriving students. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission. The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimes spillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the local population. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. We found the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms of reducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation is likely to be much more important for reducing transmission during term time. Finally, we explored strategies for testing students in the context of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a major outbreak.

Indexed as

COVID-19epidemic modellinghigher educationpandemic modellingSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID34386249
PMCPMC8334840

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.