ArticleScientific reports2021
A simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Poor prognosis indicators of type-2 diabetic COVID-19 patients.Brazilian journal of medical and biological research = Revista brasileira de pesquisas medicas e biologica · 2022Article
- Estimation of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 from the incubation period distribution.The European physical journal. Special topics · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
23 authors.
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Abstract
We propose herein a mathematical model to predict the COVID-19 evolution and evaluate the impact of governmental decisions on this evolution, attempting to explain the long duration of the pandemic in the 26 Brazilian states and their capitals well as in the Federative Unit. The prediction was performed based on the growth rate of new cases in a stable period, and the graphics plotted with the significant governmental decisions to evaluate the impact on the epidemic curve in each Brazilian state and city. Analysis of the predicted new cases was correlated with the total number of hospitalizations and deaths related to COVID-19. Because Brazil is a vast country, with high heterogeneity and complexity of the regional/local characteristics and governmental authorities among Brazilian states and cities, we individually predicted the epidemic curve based on a specific stable period with reduced or minimal interference on the growth rate of new cases. We found good accuracy, mainly in a short period (weeks). The most critical governmental decisions had a significant temporal impact on pandemic curve growth. A good relationship was found between the predicted number of new cases and the total number of inpatients and deaths related to COVID-19. In summary, we demonstrated that interventional and preventive measures directly and significantly impact the COVID-19 pandemic using a simple mathematical model. This model can easily be applied, helping, and directing health and governmental authorities to make further decisions to combat the pandemic.
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