Prognostic significance of human papillomavirus 16 viral load level in patients with oropharyngeal cancer.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is a major determinant for better prognosis. However, there remain HPV-positive patients who have poor outcomes. The stratification strategy for detecting high-risk patients among those with HPV-positive OPSCC has not been well delineated, especially for Asian patients. We undertook a retrospective cohort study on the survival rate of 89 Japanese patients diagnosed with primary OPSCC. The tumors were concurrently analyzed for the presence of HPV E6 DNA/mRNA, viral DNA load, p16 expression, viral physical status, and viral variant lineage. Human papillomavirus 16 viral DNA was found in 45 (51%) OPSCCs. Human papillomavirus 16 DNA-positive OPSCCs with higher viral load (classified as HPV16 DNA-medium/high OPSCCs) showed significantly favorable overall survival and progression-free survival compared with HPV16 DNA-positive OPSCCs with lower viral load (<10 copies/cell; HPV16 DNA-low OPSCCs) and HPV16 DNA-negative OPSCCs. E6 mRNA expression was observed in all HPV16 DNA-medium/high OPSCCs but not in HPV16 DNA-low OPSCCs. Notably, p16-positive and HPV16 DNA-negative/low OPSCCs showed significantly worse survival than p16-positive and HPV16 DNA-medium/high OPSCCs and resembled HPV-unrelated OPSCCs with regard to survival and risk factor profile. Although not significant, a trend toward shorter survival was observed for HPV16-integrated OPSCCs. Phylogenetic analysis revealed two major types of HPV16 variants termed Asian (A4) and European (A1/A2/A3) variants, but no difference in survival between these variants was observed. Altogether, these findings suggest that HPV viral load is a potentially informative factor for more accurate risk stratification of patients with OPSCC.