ArticleNPJ vaccines2021
Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation.
Article in NPJ vaccines, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed.
- Evaluating vaccination timing, hesitancy and effectiveness to prevent future outbreaks: insights from COVID-19 modelling and transmission dynamics.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Review
- Concerns, perceived risk, and hesitancy on COVID-19 vaccine: a qualitative exploration among university students living in the West Bank.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- Article
- Modeling and multi-objective optimal control of reaction-diffusion COVID-19 system due to vaccination and patient isolation.Applied mathematical modelling · 2023Article
- Association between the COVID-19 Vaccine and Preventive Behaviors: Panel Data Analysis from Japan.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Article
- Evidence-based policies in public health to address COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.Future virology · 2023Review
- Health Behaviours among Travellers Regarding Risk Compensation Following COVID-19 Vaccination in Taizhou, China.The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2023Article
- Factors influencing estimated effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in non-randomised studies.BMJ evidence-based medicine · 2022Article
- Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 hospitalization with the Alpha, Delta, or Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant: A nationwide Danish cohort study.PLoS medicine · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 reinfections: Overview of efficacy and duration of natural and hybrid immunity.Environmental research · 2022Review
- The end of the COVID-19 pandemic.European journal of clinical investigation · 2022Article
- COVID-19 pandemic over 2020 (withlockdowns) and 2021 (with vaccinations): similar effects for seasonality and environmental factors.Environmental research · 2022Article
- Do people reduce compliance with COVID-19 guidelines following vaccination? A longitudinal analysis of matched UK adults.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2022Article
- Attitude of parents toward vaccination against COVID-19 for own children in Jordan: A cross-sectional study.Informatics in medicine unlocked · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Vaccination, Peltzman Effect and Possible Increase in Highrisk Behaviors: A Growing Concern Related to Risk Compensation and Reduced Compliance to Public Health Protective Measures after Vaccines Rollout.Infectious disorders drug targets · 2022Article
- COVID-19 vaccination in children and university students.European journal of clinical investigation · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
People receiving COVID-19 vaccines may subsequently markedly increase their previously suppressed exposure risk. A simple model can evaluate the benefit of vaccination to the vaccinated (index) person and others exposed to that person; and calculate the amount of risk compensation required to eliminate all the benefits or to halve the benefit. As shown, 2.5-fold increase in exposure will eliminate the benefit of a vaccine of moderate efficacy (E = 0.6) unless the probability of infection in the population of interest is very high. With very high vaccine efficacy (E = 0.95), substantial benefit is maintained except in situations where there is a very low probability of infection in the population. If the vaccine efficacy decreases to 0.8, the benefit gets eroded easily with modest risk compensation. Risk compensation may markedly affect the benefit of COVID-19 vaccination, especially if vaccine efficacy in real-life or specific high-risk populations (e.g., nursing home residents) is not very high.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.