Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34379323›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Geriatrics Society2021

Savings and outcomes under Medicare's bundled payments initiative for skilled nursing facilities.

Karen E Joynt Maddox, Michael L Barnett, E John Orav, Jie Zheng, David C Grabowski, Arnold M Epstein

Abstract readEvaluation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Karen E Joynt MaddoxCardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3779-8653
Michael L BarnettDepartment of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
E John OravDepartment of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Jie ZhengDepartment of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
David C GrabowskiDepartment of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Arnold M EpsteinDepartment of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

Funding

NBER Center for Aging and Health Research-Post COVID-19 Experiences Among Adults with ADRDP30AG012810 · NIA · NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH · PI DAVID M CUTLER · 1999 to 2026
$24.6M
The Impact of Bundled Payments for Cardiopulmonary Disease on High-Risk PopulationsR01HL143421 · NHLBI · WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY · PI JOYNT MADDOX, KAREN ELLEN · 2019 to 2022
$3.1M
Improving the Quality of Care Provided Through Bundled Payments for Patients with Alzheimer's Disease or Other Forms of Dementia or FrailtyR01AG060935 · NIA · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI EPSTEIN, ARNOLD, JOYNT MADDOX, KAREN ELLEN · 2019 to 2021
$2.7M
Observation Stays and Readmissions for Older Adults: Implications for Medicare PoliciesR01AG063759 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI SABBATINI, AMBER KATHLEEN · 2020 to 2023
$1.4M
The Changing Landscape of Post-Acute Care and Health Outcomes for Older AdultsK23AG058806 · NIA · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI BARNETT, MICHAEL LAWRENCE · 2018 to 2022
$1.0M
The Effect of Patient Dementia on Outpatient Clinicians' Performance on Cost Outcomes Under Medicare Value-Based Payment.R21AG065526 · NIA · WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY · PI JOHNSTON, KENTON JAMES · 2020 to 2021
$308k
NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL143421NIA NIH HHS K23 AG058806NIA NIH HHS K23AG058806NIA NIH HHS P30 AG012810NIA NIH HHS R01 AG060935NIA NIH HHS R01AG060935NIA NIH HHS R01 AG063759NIA NIH HHS R21 AG065526
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundModel 3 of Medicare's Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) was a voluntary alternative payment model that held participating skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) accountable for 90-day costs of care. Its overall impact on Medicare spending and clinical outcomes is unknown.

methodsRetrospective cohort study using Medicare claims from 2012 to 2017. We used an interrupted time-series design to compare participating vs matched control SNFs on total 90-day Medicare payments and payment components (initial SNF stay, readmissions, and outpatient/clinician), case mix (volume, proportion Medicaid, proportion black, number of comorbidities), and clinical outcomes (90-day readmission, mortality and healthy days at home, and length of initial SNF stay), overall and among key subgroups with frailty or dementia, for 47 of the 48 conditions in the program (excluding major lower extremity joint replacement).

resultsOur sample included 1001 participating and 3873 matched control SNFs. At baseline, total Medicare institutional payments were increasing at BPCI SNFs at a rate of $121 per episode per quarter; during the intervention period, payments decreased at a rate of -$398/episode/quarter. Among controls, payments were stable in the baseline period (+$17/episode/quarter) but decreased at -$424/episode/quarter during the intervention period, yielding a nonsignificant difference in slope changes of -$79/episode/quarter (95% confidence interval [CI] -$188, $31, p = 0.16). However, among patients with frailty, spending declined by $620/episode/quarter in the BPCI group, compared with $330/episode/quarter in the non-BPCI group, for a difference in slope changes of -$289 (95% CI -$482, -$96, p = 0.003). There were no differences in the change in slopes in case selection or clinical outcomes overall or in any clinical subgroup.

conclusionsSNF participation in BPCI was associated with no overall differential change in total Medicare payments per episode, case selection, or clinical outcomes. Exploratory analyses revealed a decrease in Medicare payments in patients with frailty that may warrant further study.

Indexed as

AgedAged, 80 and overCase-Control StudiesDiagnosis-Related GroupsEpisode of CareFemaleHealth ExpendituresHumansInterrupted Time Series AnalysisMaleMedicareOutcome Assessment, Health CarePatient Care BundlesReimbursement MechanismsRetrospective StudiesSkilled Nursing FacilitiesdementiafrailtyMedicarepayment modelsskilled nursing facilities

Identifiers

PMID34379323
PMCPMC8649071

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.