Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34377733›Full record

ArticleOpen forum infectious diseases2021

SARS-CoV-2 Cumulative Incidence and Period Seroprevalence: Results From a Statewide Population-Based Serosurvey in California.

Katherine Lamba, Heather Bradley, Kayoko Shioda, Patrick S Sullivan, Nicole Luisi, Eric W Hall, Megha L Mehrotra, Esther Lim, Seema Jain, Amanda Kamali and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Open forum infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Katherine LambaCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA.
Heather BradleyDepartment of Population Health Sciences, Georgia State University School of Public Health, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Kayoko ShiodaGangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Patrick S SullivanDepartment of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Nicole LuisiDepartment of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Eric W HallDepartment of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Megha L MehrotraCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA.
Esther LimCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA.
Seema JainCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6342-8288
Amanda KamaliCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA.
Travis SanchezDepartment of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Benjamin A LopmanDepartment of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Mansour FahimiMarketing Systems Group, Horsham, Pennsylvania, USA.
Aaron J SieglerDepartment of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5553-7540

Funding

Population-based survey of SARS-CoV-2 infection and immune responseR01AI143875 · NIAID · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI SIEGLER, AARON JULIUS, SULLIVAN, PATRICK SEAN · 2019 to 2023
$9.2M
Preparing for the SARS-CoV2 vaccine: Modeling of transmission pathways, viral evolution and vaccination strategiesR01GM124280 · NIGMS · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI LOPMAN, BENJAMIN A · 2018 to 2022
$2.2M
NCEZID CDC HHS U01 CK000539NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI143875NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM124280
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCalifornia has reported the largest number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases of any US state, with more than 3.5 million confirmed as of March 2021. However, the full breadth of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in California is unknown as reported cases only represent a fraction of all infections.

methodsWe conducted a population-based serosurvey, utilizing mailed, home-based SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing along with a demographic and behavioral survey. We weighted data from a random sample to represent the adult California population and estimated period seroprevalence overall and by participant characteristics. Seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for waning antibodies to produce statewide estimates of cumulative incidence, the infection fatality ratio (IFR), and the reported fraction.

resultsCalifornia's SARS-CoV-2 weighted seroprevalence during August-December 2020 was 4.6% (95% CI, 2.8%-7.4%). Estimated cumulative incidence as of November 2, 2020, was 8.7% (95% CrI, 6.4%-11.5%), indicating that 2 660 441 adults (95% CrI, 1 959 218-3 532 380) had been infected. The estimated IFR was 0.8% (95% CrI, 0.6%-1.0%), and the estimated percentage of infections reported to the California Department of Public Health was 31%. Disparately high risk for infection was observed among persons of Hispanic/Latinx ethnicity and people with no health insurance and who reported working outside the home.

conclusionsWe present the first statewide SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence estimate among adults in California. As of November 2020, ~1 in 3 SARS-CoV-2 infections in California adults had been identified by public health surveillance. When accounting for unreported SARS-CoV-2 infections, disparities by race/ethnicity seen in case-based surveillance persist.

Indexed as

cumulative incidenceSARS-CoV-2seroprevalence

Identifiers

PMID34377733
PMCPMC8339610

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.