ArticleRisk management and healthcare policy2021
Predicted Impact of Vaccination and Active Case Finding Measures to Control Epidemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a Migrant-Populated Area in Thailand.
Article in Risk management and healthcare policy, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Article
- Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination Rates and Public Measures on Case Rates at the Provincial Level, Thailand, 2021: Spatial Panel Model Analyses.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- Investigation of Factors Affecting COVID-19 and Sixth Wave Management Using a System Dynamics Approach.Journal of healthcare engineering · 2022Article
- Prioritization of the Target Population for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccination Program in Thailand.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThailand experienced the first wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) during March-May 2020 and has been facing the second wave since December 2020. The area facing the greatest impact was Samut Sakhon, a main migrant-receiving province in the country. The Department of Disease Control (DDC) of the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) considered initiating a vaccination strategy in combination with active case finding (ACF) in the epidemic area. The DDC commissioned a research team to predict the impact of various vaccination and ACF policy scenarios in terms of case reduction and deaths averted, which is the objective of this study.
methodsThe design of this study was a secondary analysis of quantitative data. Most of the data were obtained from the DDC, MOPH. Deterministic system dynamics and compartmental models were exercised. A basic reproductive number (R
resultsThe findings showed that the greater the vaccination coverage, the smaller the size of incident and cumulative cases. Compared with a no-vaccination and no-ACF scenario, the 90%-vaccination coverage combined with 90%-ACF coverage contributed to a reduction of cumulative cases by 33%. The case reduction benefit would be greater when R
conclusionThis study reaffirmed the idea that a combination of vaccination and ACF measures contributed to favourable results in reducing the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, relative to the implementation of only a single measure. The greater the vaccination and ACF coverage, the greater the volume of cases saved. Though we demonstrated the benefit of vaccination strategies in this setting, actual implementation should consider many more policy angles, such as social acceptability, cost-effectiveness and operational feasibility. Further studies that address these topics based on empirical evidence are of great value.
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