ArticleBMJ open2021
Effects of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in South Africa across different drinker groups and wealth quintiles: a modelling study.
Article in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Health impact of alcohol regulatory interventions: a systematic review of policies in low- and middle-income countries.Health policy and planning · 2025Pooled it
- Impact of minimum unit pricing on alcohol-related hospital outcomes: systematic review.BMJ open · 2023Pooled it
- The global epidemiology of alcohol-associated liver disease.Hepatology communications · 2026Review
- Alcohol-related cirrhosis mortality, 1990-2021: temporal trends and development-level inequalities.Gastroenterology and hepatology from bed to bench · 2026Article
- The involvement of stakeholders in computational model development to support decision-making in public health: a scoping review.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Educational inequalities in deaths of despair in 14 OECD countries: a cross-sectional observational study.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2025Observational
- The Impact of Raising Alcohol Taxes on Government Tax Revenue: Insights from Five European Countries.Applied health economics and health policy · 2024Article
- The landscape and level of alcohol policy enforcement in Tanzania.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- An agent-based model of binge drinking, inequitable gender norms and their contribution to HIV transmission, with application to South Africa.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Stakeholder Engagement in the Development of Public Health Economic Models: An Application to Modelling of Minimum Unit Pricing of Alcohol in South Africa.Applied health economics and health policy · 2023Article
- Alcohol minimum unit pricing and people experiencing homelessness: A qualitative study of stakeholders' perspectives and experiences.Drug and alcohol review · 2023Article
- Did COVID-19-Related Alcohol Sales Restrictions Reduce Alcohol Consumption? Findings from a National Online Survey in South Africa.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Equity impact of minimum unit pricing of alcohol on household health and finances among rich and poor drinkers in South Africa.BMJ global health · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo quantify the potential impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol on alcohol consumption, spending and health in South Africa. We provide these estimates disaggregated by different drinker groups and wealth quintiles.
designWe developed an epidemiological policy appraisal model to estimate the effects of MUP across sex, drinker groups (moderate, occasional binge, heavy) and wealth quintiles. Stakeholder interviews and workshops informed model development and ensured policy relevance.
settingSouth African drinking population aged 15+.
participantsThe population (aged 15+) of South Africa in 2018 stratified by drinking group and wealth quintiles, with a model time horizon of 20 years.
main outcome measuresChange in standard drinks (SDs) (12 g of ethanol) consumed, weekly spend on alcohol, annual number of cases and deaths for five alcohol-related health conditions (HIV, intentional injury, road injury, liver cirrhosis and breast cancer), reported by drinker groups and wealth quintile.
resultsWe estimate an MUP of R10 per SD would lead to an immediate reduction in consumption of 4.40% (-0.93 SD/week) and an increase in spend of 18.09%. The absolute reduction is greatest for heavy drinkers (-1.48 SD/week), followed by occasional binge drinkers (-0.41 SD/week) and moderate drinkers (-0.40 SD/week). Over 20 years, we estimate 20 585 fewer deaths and 9 00 332 cases averted across the five health-modelled harms.Poorer drinkers would see greater impacts from the policy (consumption: -7.75% in the poorest quintile, -3.19% in richest quintile). Among the heavy drinkers, 85% of the cases averted and 86% of the lives saved accrue to the bottom three wealth quintiles.
conclusionsWe estimate that MUP would reduce alcohol consumption in South Africa, improving health outcomes while raising retail and tax revenue. Consumption and harm reductions would be greater in poorer groups.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.