Development and validation of a model to estimate the risk of acute ischemic stroke in geriatric patients with primary hypertension.

objectivesThis study aimed to construct and validate a prediction model of acute ischemic stroke in geriatric patients with primary hypertension.

methodsThis retrospective file review collected information on 1367 geriatric patients diagnosed with primary hypertension and with and without acute ischemic stroke between October 2018 and May 2020. The study cohort was randomly divided into a training set and a testing set at a ratio of 70 to 30%. A total of 15 clinical indicators were assessed using the chi-square test and then multivariable logistic regression analysis to develop the prediction model. We employed the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curves to assess the performance of the model and a nomogram for visualization. Internal verification by bootstrap resampling (1000 times) and external verification with the independent testing set determined the accuracy of the model. Finally, this model was compared with four machine learning algorithms to identify the most effective method for predicting the risk of stroke.

resultsThe prediction model identified six variables (smoking, alcohol abuse, blood pressure management, stroke history, diabetes, and carotid artery stenosis). The AUC was 0.736 in the training set and 0.730 and 0.725 after resampling and in the external verification, respectively. The calibration curve illustrated a close overlap between the predicted and actual diagnosis of stroke in both the training set and testing validation. The multivariable logistic regression analysis and support vector machine with radial basis function kernel were the best models with an AUC of 0.710.

conclusionThe prediction model using multiple logistic regression analysis has considerable accuracy and can be visualized in a nomogram, which is convenient for its clinical application.