ArticleResults in physics2021
COVID-19 deterministic and stochastic modelling with optimized daily vaccinations in Saudi Arabia.
Article in Results in physics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 23 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Mathematical analysis of modified blood glucose insulin model through fractal fractional operators.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Stochastic dynamical analysis for the complex infectious disease model driven by multisource noises.PloS one · 2024Article
- Assessment of 2021/22 influenza epidemic scenarios in Italy during SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.PloS one · 2023Article
- Risk-based cost-benefit analysis of alternative vaccines against COVID-19 in Brazil: Coronavac vs. Astrazeneca vs. Pfizer.Vaccine · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the stochastic nature of the COVID-19 temporal dynamics by generating a fractional-order dynamic model and a fractional-order-stochastic model. Initially, we considered the first and second vaccination doses as multiple vaccinations were initiated worldwide. The concerned models are then tested for the Saudi Arabia second virus wave, which is assumed to start on 1st March 2021. Four daily vaccination scenarios for the first and second dose are assumed for 100 days from the wave beginning. One of these scenarios is based on function optimization using the invasive weed optimization algorithm (IWO). After that, we numerically solve the established models using the fractional Euler method and the Euler-Murayama method. Finally, the obtained virus dynamics using the assumed scenarios and the real one started by the government are compared. The optimized scenario using the IWO effectively minimizes the predicted cumulative wave infections with a 4.4 % lower number of used vaccination doses.
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