ArticleNature physics2021
The effectiveness of backward contact tracing in networks.
Article in Nature physics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
58 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Effectiveness of testing, contact tracing and isolation interventions among the general population on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- Human mobility in the metaverse mirrors patterns in the physical world.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Network-based proactive contact tracing: A pre-emptive, degree-based alerting framework for privacy-preserving COVID-19 apps.PLOS digital health · 2025Article
- Comparison of contact tracing methods: A modelling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Analysis of the SEIR mean-field model in dynamic networks under intervention.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Comparing the effectiveness of ring and block-vaccination strategies on networks.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Mathematical Contact Tracing Models for the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review of the Literature.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Hypergraph reconstruction from dynamics.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Contact Tracing During the COVID-19 Epidemic: Insights from the Experience of the Veneto Region in Italy.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Novel sampling strategy for regular nucleic acid testing in low risk areas during epidemics.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Network community detection via neural embeddings.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Effectiveness of probabilistic contact tracing in epidemic containment: The role of superspreaders and transmission path reconstruction.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- New framework to assess tracing and testing based on South Korea's response to COVID-19.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Review
- Looking under the lamp-post: quantifying the performance of contact tracing in the United States during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.BMC public health · 2024Article
- All paths lead to hubs in the spectroscopic networks of water isotopologues HCommunications chemistry · 2024Article
- A mathematical model to assess the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate-and-quarantine under limited capacities.PloS one · 2024Article
- Time trends and modifiable factors of COVID-19 contact tracing coverage, Geneva, Switzerland, June 2020 to February 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- The epidemiological impact of digital and manual contact tracing on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the Netherlands: Empirical evidence.PLOS digital health · 2023Article
- Investigation of an international water polo tournament in Czechia as a potential source for early introduction of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant into Belgium, Switzerland and Germany, November 2021.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023Article
- Temporal and Probabilistic Comparisons of Epidemic Interventions.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Effective control of an epidemic relies on the rapid discovery and isolation of infected individuals. Because many infectious diseases spread through interaction, contact tracing is widely used to facilitate case discovery and control. However, what determines the efficacy of contact tracing has not been fully understood. Here we reveal that, compared with 'forward' tracing (tracing to whom disease spreads), 'backward' tracing (tracing from whom disease spreads) is profoundly more effective. The effectiveness of backward tracing is due to simple but overlooked biases arising from the heterogeneity in contacts. We argue that, even if the directionality of infection is unknown, it is possible to perform backward-aiming contact tracing. Using simulations on both synthetic and high-resolution empirical contact datasets, we show that strategically executed contact tracing can prevent a substantial fraction of transmissions with a higher efficiency-in terms of prevented cases per isolation-than case isolation alone. Our results call for a revision of current contact-tracing strategies so that they leverage all forms of bias. It is particularly crucial that we incorporate backward and deep tracing in a digital context while adhering to the privacy-preserving requirements of these new platforms.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.