Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34358291›Full record

ArticleEuropean journal of public health2021

The impact of a COVID-19 lockdown on work productivity under good and poor compliance.

Julius Ohrnberger, Alexa Blair Segal, Giovanni Forchini, Marisa Miraldo, Janetta Skarp, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Daniel J Laydon, Azra Ghani, Neil M Ferguson, Katharina Hauck

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in European journal of public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Julius OhrnbergerSchool of Public Health, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Alexa Blair SegalDepartment of Management & Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Giovanni ForchiniDepartment of Economics, Umeå School of Business, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Marisa MiraldoDepartment of Management & Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Janetta SkarpSchool of Public Health, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Gemma Nedjati-GilaniSchool of Public Health, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Daniel J LaydonSchool of Public Health, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Azra GhaniSchool of Public Health, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Neil M FergusonSchool of Public Health, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Katharina HauckSchool of Public Health, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC_19012Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments across the globe have imposed strict social distancing measures. Public compliance to such measures is essential for their success, yet the economic consequences of compliance are unknown. This is the first study to analyze the effects of good compliance compared with poor compliance to a COVID-19 suppression strategy (i.e. lockdown) on work productivity.

methodsWe estimate the differences in work productivity comparing a scenario of good compliance with one of poor compliance to the UK government COVID-19 suppression strategy. We use projections of the impact of the UK suppression strategy on mortality and morbidity from an individual-based epidemiological model combined with an economic model representative of the labour force in Wales and England.

resultsWe find that productivity effects of good compliance significantly exceed those of poor compliance and increase with the duration of the lockdown. After 3 months of the lockdown, work productivity in good compliance is £398.58 million higher compared with that of poor compliance; 75% of the differences is explained by productivity effects due to morbidity and non-health reasons and 25% attributed to avoided losses due to pre-mature mortality.

conclusionGood compliance to social distancing measures exceeds positive economic effects, in addition to health benefits. This is an important finding for current economic and health policy. It highlights the importance to set clear guidelines for the public, to build trust and support for the rules and if necessary, to enforce good compliance to social distancing measures.

Indexed as

COVID-19PandemicsCommunicable Disease ControlGovernmentHumansSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID34358291
PMCPMC8385936

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.