ArticleThe European journal of general practice2021
Predictors for mortality due to acute exacerbation of COPD in primary care: Derivation of a clinical prediction rule in a multicentre cohort study.
Article in The European journal of general practice, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 2 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prognostic risk prediction model for patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD): a systematic review and meta-analysis.Respiratory research · 2024Pooled it
- A pooled analysis of the risk prediction models for mortality in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.The clinical respiratory journal · 2023Pooled it
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundIn primary care (PC), 80% of the acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are treated. However, no predictive model has been derived or validated for use in PC to help general practitioners make decisions about these patients.
objectivesTo derive a clinical prediction rule for mortality from any cause 30 days after the last PC visit.
methodsBetween December 2013 and November 2014, we performed a cohort study with people aged 40 and over who were treated for AECOPD in 148 health centres in Spain. We recorded demographic variables, past medical history, signs, and symptoms of the patients and derived a logistic regression model.
resultsIn the analysis, 1,696 cases of AECOPD were included and 17 patients (1%) died during follow-up. A clinical prediction rule was derived based on the exacerbations suffered in the last 12 months, age, and heart rate, displaying an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.692-0.891) and good calibration.
conclusionThis rule stratifies patients into three categories of risk and suggests to the physician a different action for each category: managing low-risk patients in PC, referring high-risk patients to hospitals and taking other criteria into account for decision-making in patients with moderate risk. These findings suggest that it is possible to accurately estimate the risk of death due to AECOPD without complex devices. Future studies on external validation and impact assessment are needed before this prediction rule may be used in clinical practice.
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