ArticleNature communications2021
Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
37 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Arboreal Mammals Are at Risk Under Climate Change: Insights From a Global Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Global change biology · 2026Pooled it
- Massive release of predominantly magmatic carbon drove an Early Jurassic hyperthermal.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Transitions between persistent climate-carbon regimes coincide with elevated Phanerozoic biosphere vulnerability.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Marine biodiversity was greater in the presence of ecosystem engineers throughout the Phanerozoic.Nature communications · 2026Article
- 4Ps framework: practical actions to protect individual health in the current climate crisis.BMJ leader · 2026Review
- Evolutionary stasis in synapsid encephalization during the end-permian mass extinction.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Complex marine ecological response during the Eocene-Oligocene revealed by global foraminiferal record.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Microbial metabolism amplified warming in three Phanerozoic hyperthermal events.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Habitat and Haplotype-Specific Genetic Vulnerability Analysis Combined With a Multidimensional Scoring System Provides a New Insight for Conservation Prioritization ofEcology and evolution · 2025Article
- Large reductions in tropical bird abundance attributable to heat extreme intensification.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Article
- Tempo of the Late Ordovician mass extinction controlled by the rate of climate change.Science advances · 2025Article
- The 'climate emergency', and how we respond.Future healthcare journal · 2025Article
- Marine species and assemblage change foreshadowed by their thermal bias over Early Jurassic warming.Nature communications · 2025Article
- The effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics: A systematic review.Cambridge prisms. Extinction · 2025Review
- Does intraspecific variation in juvenile Late Cretaceous ammonoids correlate with their systematic position, longevity and paleogeography?Swiss journal of palaeontology · 2025Article
- Meta-analyses reveal climate change impacts on an ecologically and economically significant oyster in Australia.iScience · 2024Article
- Review
- High extinction risk in large foraminifera during past and future mass extinctions.Science advances · 2024Article
- Density of a cryptic Australian small mammal: The threatened Julia Creek dunnart (Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Respiratory protein-driven selectivity during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction.Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.)) · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Climate change is a critical factor affecting biodiversity. However, the quantitative relationship between temperature change and extinction is unclear. Here, we analyze magnitudes and rates of temperature change and extinction rates of marine fossils through the past 450 million years (Myr). The results show that both the rate and magnitude of temperature change are significantly positively correlated with the extinction rate of marine animals. Major mass extinctions in the Phanerozoic can be linked to thresholds in climate change (warming or cooling) that equate to magnitudes >5.2 °C and rates >10 °C/Myr. The significant relationship between temperature change and extinction still exists when we exclude the five largest mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic. Our findings predict that a temperature increase of 5.2 °C above the pre-industrial level at present rates of increase would likely result in mass extinction comparable to that of the major Phanerozoic events, even without other, non-climatic anthropogenic impacts.
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