Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34345876›Full record

ReviewThe Lancet regional health. Europe2021

A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation.

Emil Nafis Iftekhar, Viola Priesemann, Rudi Balling, Simon Bauer, Philippe Beutels, André Calero Valdez, Sarah Cuschieri, Thomas Czypionka, Uga Dumpis, Enrico Glaab and 24 more

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in The Lancet regional health. Europe, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 56 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
56citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

56 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
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  5. Observational
  6. Article
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  14. Enhanced surveillance of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Europe: I-MOVE-COVID-19 surveillance network, February 2020 to December 2021.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Emotional wellbeing of student midwives during COVID-19.Women and birth : journal of the Australian College of Midwives · 2023
    Article
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  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

34 authors.

Emil Nafis IftekharMax Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany.
Viola PriesemannMax Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany.
Rudi BallingUniversity of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Simon BauerMax Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany.
Philippe BeutelsUniversity of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
André Calero ValdezRWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany.
Sarah CuschieriUniversity of Malta, Msida, Malta.
Thomas CzypionkaInstitute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria, and London School of Economics, London, UK.
Uga DumpisPauls Stradins Clinical University Hospital, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia.
Enrico GlaabUniversity of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Eva GrillLudwig-Maximilians-University München, München, Germany.
Claudia HansonKarolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden, and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Pirta HotulainenMinerva Foundation Institute for Medical Research, Helsinki, Finland.
Peter KlimekMedical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria, and Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Mirjam KretzschmarUniversity Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Tyll KrügerWroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland.
Jenny KrutzinnaUniversity of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
Nicola LowUniversity of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Helena MachadoInstitute for Social Sciences, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal.
Carlos MartinsDepartment of Community Medicine, Health Information and Decision Sciences of the Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.
Martin McKeeLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Sebastian Bernd MohrMax Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany.
Armin NassehiLudwig-Maximilians-University München, München, Germany.
Matjaž PercUniversity of Maribor, Maribor, Slovenia, and Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan.
Elena PetelosUniversity of Crete, Crete, Greece, and Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
Martyn PickersgillUniversity of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Barbara PrainsackDepartment of Political Science, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Joacim RocklövDepartment of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Eva SchernhammerMedical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Anthony StainesDublin City University, Dublin, Ireland.
Ewa SzczurekUniversity of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland.
Sotirios TsiodrasNational and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece.
Steven Van GuchtSciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
Peter WilleitMedical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria, and University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC_MR/R01910X/1Medical Research Council MR/S035818/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Indexed as

COVID-19Delphi studyEuropeexpert surveygroup forecastnon-pharmaceutical interventionspolicy adviceSARS-CoV-2variants of concern

Identifiers

PMID34345876
PMCPMC8321710

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.