Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34341803›Full record

ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2021

Herd immunity induced by COVID-19 vaccination programs and suppression of epidemics caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in China.

Hengcong Liu, Juanjuan Zhang, Jun Cai, Xiaowei Deng, Cheng Peng, Xinghui Chen, Juan Yang, Qianhui Wu, Xinhua Chen, Zhiyuan Chen and 5 more

Abstract readPreprint
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Hengcong LiuDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Juanjuan ZhangDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Jun CaiDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Xiaowei DengDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Cheng PengDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Xinghui ChenDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Juan YangDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Qianhui WuDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Xinhua ChenDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Zhiyuan ChenDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Wen ZhengDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Cécile ViboudDivision of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Wenhong ZhangDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Marco AjelliDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
Hongjie YuDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTo allow a return to a pre-COVID-19 lifestyle, virtually every country has initiated a vaccination program to mitigate severe disease burden and control transmission. However, it remains to be seen whether herd immunity will be within reach of these programs.

methodsWe developed a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China, a population with low prior immunity from natural infection. The model is calibrated considering COVID-19 natural history and the estimated transmissibility of the Delta variant. Three vaccination programs are tested, including the one currently enacted in China and model-based estimates of the herd immunity level are provided.

resultsWe found that it is unlike to reach herd immunity for the Delta variant given the relatively low efficacy of the vaccines used in China throughout 2021, the exclusion of underage individuals from the targeted population, and the lack of prior natural immunity. We estimate that, assuming a vaccine efficacy of 90% against the infection, vaccine-induced herd immunity would require a coverage of 93% or higher of the Chinese population. However, even when vaccine-induced herd immunity is not reached, we estimated that vaccination programs can reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections by 53-58% in case of an epidemic starts to unfold in the fall of 2021.

conclusionsEfforts should be taken to increase population's confidence and willingness to be vaccinated and to guarantee highly efficacious vaccines for a wider age range.

Indexed as

Covid-19Delta variantherd immunitySIR modelvaccination program

Identifiers

PMID34341803
PMCPMC8328074

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.