ArticleSaudi journal of gastroenterology : official journal of the Saudi Gastroenterology Association
Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting varices needing treatment in compensated advanced chronic liver disease: A multicenter study.
Article in Saudi journal of gastroenterology : official journal of the Saudi Gastroenterology Association. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 2 citations in OpenAlex.
- Evaluation of endoscopic submucosal dissection as a treatment option for duodenal tumors ≥ 20 mm: a systematic review and meta-analysis by lesion size.Journal of gastroenterology · 2026Pooled it
- Article
- Gallbladder Wall Thickness as a Non-Invasive Marker for Esophageal Varices: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of clinical and experimental hepatologyReview
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24 authors at 12 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundOnly a small proportion of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) had varices needing treatment (VNT) after recommended esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) screening. We aimed to create a non-invasive nomogram based on routine tests to detect VNT in cACLD patients.
methodsThe training cohort included 162 cACLD patients undergoing EGD in a university hospital, between January 2014 and September 2019. A nomogram was developed based on the independent predictors of VNT, selected using a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Thirty-three patients from eight university hospitals were prospectively enrolled as validation cohort between December 2018 and December 2019.
resultsThe prevalence of VNT was 32.7% (53/162) and 39.4% (13/33) in training and validation cohorts, respectively. The univariate analysis identified six risk factors for VNT. On the multivariate analysis, four of them, i.e., gallbladder wall thickness (odds ratio [OR]: 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98-1.56), spleen diameter (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04), platelet count (OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.97-0.99), and international normalized ratio (OR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.06-5.84) were independently associated with VNT. Thus, a nomogram based on the four above - mentioned variables was developed, and showed a favorable performance for detecting VNT, with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.848 (95% CI: 0.769-0.927) in training cohort. By applying a cut-off value of 105 in validation cohort, 31.0% of EGD were safely spared with 3.4% of missed VNT.
conclusionA nomogram based on routine clinical parameters was developed for detecting VNT and avoiding unnecessary EGD in cACLD patients.
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