Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34341095›Full record

ArticleOpen heart2021

Age-specific atrial fibrillation incidence, attributable risk factors and risk of stroke and mortality: results from the MORGAM Consortium.

Bente Morseth, Bastiaan Geelhoed, Allan Linneberg, Lars Johansson, Kari Kuulasmaa, Veikko Salomaa, Licia Iacoviello, Simona Costanzo, Stefan Söderberg, Teemu J Niiranen and 10 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Open heart, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
6.4field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 64 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Immune persistence and safety of the AS01Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025
    Trial
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
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  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
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  12. Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms,International journal of molecular sciences · 2025
    Review
  13. Trends and disparities in the global burden of atrial fibrillation and flutter in early-onset and older-age populations.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
    Article
  14. Hospital healthcare utilisation in patients with atrial fibrillation: the role of multimorbidity and age.Netherlands heart journal : monthly journal of the Netherlands Society of Cardiology and the Netherlands Heart Foundation · 2025
    Article
  15. Review
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  20. Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

20 authors at 9 institutions in 6 countries.

Bente MorsethSchool of Sport Sciences, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway bente.morseth@uit.no.ORCID 0000-0002-7973-0342
Bastiaan GeelhoedDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
Allan LinnebergCenter for Clinical Research and Prevention, Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Lars JohanssonDepartment of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Kari KuulasmaaDepartment of Public Health Solutions, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID 0000-0003-2165-1411
Veikko SalomaaDepartment of Public Health Solutions, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID 0000-0001-7563-5324
Licia IacovielloResearch Center in Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine (EPIMED), University of Insubria, Varese, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-0514-5885
Simona CostanzoDepartment of Epidemiology and Prevention, IRCCS NEUROMED, Pozzilli (IS), Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-4569-1186
Stefan SöderbergDepartment of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0001-9225-1306
Teemu J NiiranenDepartment of Public Health Solutions, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland.
Julie K K Vishram-NielsenCenter for Clinical Research and Prevention, Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Inger NjølstadDepartment of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.
Tom WilsgaardDepartment of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.
Ellisiv B MathiesenDepartment of Clinical Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.
Maja-Lisa LøchenDepartment of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.ORCID 0000-0002-8532-6573
Tanja ZellerDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
Stefan BlankenbergDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
Francisco M OjedaDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
Renate B SchnabelDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-7170-9509
MORGAM consortium
UiT The Arctic University of Norway · NOGerman Centre for Cardiovascular Research · DEFinnish Institute for Health and Welfare · FIUmeå University · SEUniversity of Copenhagen · DKIstituto Neurologico Mediterraneo · ITUniversity Hospital of North Norway · NOUniversity of Insubria · ITUniversity of Turku · FI

Funding

Medical Research Council G0601463
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe main aim was to examine age-specific risk factor associations with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and their attributable fraction in a large European cohort. Additionally, we aimed to examine risk of stroke and mortality in relation to new-onset AF across age.

methodsWe used individual-level data (n=66 951, 49.1% men, age range 40-98 years at baseline) from five European cohorts of the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph Consortium. The participants were followed for incident AF for up to 10 years and the association with modifiable risk factors from the baseline examinations (body mass index (BMI), hypertension, diabetes, daily smoking, alcohol consumption and history of stroke and myocardial infarction (MI)) was examined. Additionally, the participants were followed up for incident stroke and all-cause mortality after new-onset AF.

resultsAF incidence increased from 0.9 per 1000 person-years at baseline age 40-49 years, to 17.7 at baseline age ≥70 years. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models showed that higher BMI, hypertension, high alcohol consumption and a history of stroke or MI were associated with increased risk of AF across age groups (p<0.05). Between 30% and 40% of the AF risk could be attributed to BMI, hypertension and a history of stroke or MI. New-onset AF was associated with a twofold increase in risk of stroke and death at ages≥70 years (p≤0.001).

conclusionIn this large European cohort aged 40 years and above, risk of AF was largely attributed to BMI, high alcohol consumption and a history MI or stroke from middle age. Thus, preventive measures for AF should target risk factors such as obesity and hypertension from early age and continue throughout life.

Indexed as

Body Mass IndexAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionAge FactorsAtrial FibrillationEuropeFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk Factorsatrial fibrillationepidemiologyrisk factorsstroke

Identifiers

PMID34341095
PMCPMC8330568
OpenAlexW3192760275

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.