Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34338943›Full record

ArticleBreast cancer research and treatment2021

Improved risk estimation of locoregional recurrence, secondary contralateral tumors and distant metastases in early breast cancer: the INFLUENCE 2.0 model.

Vinzenz Völkel, Tom A Hueting, Teresa Draeger, Marissa C van Maaren, Linda de Munck, Luc J A Strobbe, Gabe S Sonke, Marjanka K Schmidt, Marjan van Hezewijk, Catharina G M Groothuis-Oudshoorn and 1 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Breast cancer research and treatment, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
3.0field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 44 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. The effectiveness of personalised surveillance and aftercare in breast cancer follow-up: a systematic review.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2024
    Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Integrated Clinicogenomic Risk Modeling for Metachronous Second Primary Cancers.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.

Vinzenz VölkelTumor Center Regensburg/University of Regensburg, Institute for Quality Control and Health Services Research, Regensburg, Germany.
Tom A HuetingEvidencio, medical Decision Support, Haaksbergen, The Netherlands.
Teresa DraegerTumor Center Regensburg/University of Regensburg, Institute for Quality Control and Health Services Research, Regensburg, Germany.
Marissa C van MaarenDepartment of Health Technology and Services Research, Technical Medical Centre, University of Twente, POBox 217, Enschede, 7500 AE, The Netherlands.
Linda de MunckDepartment of Research and Development, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (IKNL), POBox 19079, Utrecht, 3501 DB, The Netherlands.
Luc J A StrobbeDepartment of Surgical Oncology, Canisius Wilhelmina Hospital, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Gabe S SonkeDepartment of Medical Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Marjanka K SchmidtDivision of Molecular Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Marjan van HezewijkInstitution for Radiation Oncology, Arnhem, The Netherlands.
Catharina G M Groothuis-Oudshoorn *Department of Health Technology and Services Research, Technical Medical Centre, University of Twente, POBox 217, Enschede, 7500 AE, The Netherlands.
Sabine Siesling *Department of Health Technology and Services Research, Technical Medical Centre, University of Twente, POBox 217, Enschede, 7500 AE, The Netherlands. s.siesling@iknl.nl.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0273-824X
Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation · NLThe Netherlands Cancer Institute · NLUniversity of Regensburg · DEUniversity of Twente · NLCanisius-Wilhelmina Ziekenhuis · NLRadiotherapiegroep · NL

Funding

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft 417891978
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeTo extend the functionality of the existing INFLUENCE nomogram for locoregional recurrence (LRR) of breast cancer toward the prediction of secondary primary tumors (SP) and distant metastases (DM) using updated follow-up data and the best suitable statistical approaches.

methodsData on women diagnosed with non-metastatic invasive breast cancer were derived from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (n = 13,494). To provide flexible time-dependent individual risk predictions for LRR, SP, and DM, three statistical approaches were assessed; a Cox proportional hazard approach (COX), a parametric spline approach (PAR), and a random survival forest (RSF). These approaches were evaluated on their discrimination using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) statistic and on calibration using the Integrated Calibration Index (ICI). To correct for optimism, the performance measures were assessed by drawing 200 bootstrap samples.

resultsAge, tumor grade, pT, pN, multifocality, type of surgery, hormonal receptor status, HER2-status, and adjuvant therapy were included as predictors. While all three approaches showed adequate calibration, the RSF approach offers the best optimism-corrected 5-year AUC for LRR (0.75, 95%CI: 0.74-0.76) and SP (0.67, 95%CI: 0.65-0.68). For the prediction of DM, all three approaches showed equivalent discrimination (5-year AUC: 0.77-0.78), while COX seems to have an advantage concerning calibration (ICI < 0.01). Finally, an online calculator of INFLUENCE 2.0 was created.

conclusionsINFLUENCE 2.0 is a flexible model to predict time-dependent individual risks of LRR, SP and DM at a 5-year scale; it can support clinical decision-making regarding personalized follow-up strategies for curatively treated non-metastatic breast cancer patients.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsCombined Modality TherapyFemaleHumansNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalNetherlandsNomogramsContralateral breast cancerFollow-upMamma carcinomaMetachronous metastasisRecurrenceRisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID34338943
PMCPMC8505302
OpenAlexW3191145853

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.