ArticleJournal of population economics2021
The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the demand for health care and on mortality: evidence from COVID-19 in Scandinavia.
Article in Journal of population economics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- The effect of age-specific stay-at-home recommendation on healthcare utilization: Evidence from Finland's COVID-19 policy.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026Article
- The impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy across socioeconomic groups in Denmark.Population health metrics · 2024Article
- Policy evaluation during a pandemic.Journal of econometrics · 2023Article
- The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy in 27 countries.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Stress/depression across the COVID-19 pandemic in Denmark.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Cancer, more than a "COVID-19 co-morbidity".Frontiers in oncology · 2023Review
- Article
- Experts vs. policymakers in the COVID-19 policy response.Journal of economic behavior & organization · 2022Article
- Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life-expectancy losses: a population-level study of 29 countries.International journal of epidemiology · 2022Article
- The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19.Journal of population economics · 2022Article
- Reopening schools in a context of low COVID-19 contagion: consequences for teachers, students and their parents.Journal of population economics · 2022Article
- How effective are social distancing policies? Evidence on the fight against COVID-19.PloS one · 2021Article
- The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden.PloS one · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We study the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 on the allocation of scarce resources in the hospital sector in Scandinavia. Denmark and Norway imposed strict NPIs, but Sweden followed an extraordinarily lenient approach. We use an event study to compare COVID-19 hospitalizations, intensive-care (ICU) patients, and deaths in Sweden with Denmark and Norway. The outcome variables initially follow a common trend, but diverge 2-3 weeks after lockdown. Both the timing of the effect and the similarity in the trend between Denmark and Norway are highly consistent with a causal effect of the lockdown. We use our event study to build a counterfactual model that predicts the outcome variables for Denmark and Norway if they had followed Sweden's approach. In the absence of strict NPIs, the peak number of hospitalizations would have been 2.5 (3.5) times as large in Denmark (Norway). Overall, Denmark (Norway) would have had 334 (671) percent more hospital-patient days, 277 (379) percent more ICU-patient days, and 402 (1015) percent more deaths. The benefit of lockdown in terms of healthcare and mortality costs amounts to between 1 and 4 (0.9 and 3.5) percent of GDP in Denmark (Norway).
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