Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34332540›Full record

ArticleBMC medical research methodology2021

Use of machine learning techniques to identify HIV predictors for screening in sub-Saharan Africa.

Charles K Mutai, Patrick E McSharry, Innocent Ngaruye, Edouard Musabanganji

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  4. Machine learning for personalized risk assessment of HIV, syphilis, gonorrhoea and chlamydia: A systematic review and meta-analysis.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2025
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  14. Machine learning to improve HIV screening using routine data in Kenya.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Charles K MutaiAfrican Center of Excellence in Data Science, University of Rwanda, Kigali, BP 4285, Rwanda. charlimtai@gmail.com.
Patrick E McSharryAfrican Center of Excellence in Data Science, University of Rwanda, Kigali, BP 4285, Rwanda.
Innocent NgaruyeCollege of Science and Technology, University of Rwanda, Kigali, Rwanda.
Edouard MusabanganjiCollege of Business and Economics, University of Rwanda, Kigali, Rwanda.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimHIV prevention measures in sub-Saharan Africa are still short of attaining the UNAIDS 90-90-90 fast track targets set in 2014. Identifying predictors for HIV status may facilitate targeted screening interventions that improve health care. We aimed at identifying HIV predictors as well as predicting persons at high risk of the infection.

methodWe applied machine learning approaches for building models using population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) data for 41,939 male and 45,105 female respondents with 30 and 40 variables respectively from four countries in sub-Saharan countries. We trained and validated the algorithms on 80% of the data and tested on the remaining 20% where we rotated around the left-out country. An algorithm with the best mean f1 score was retained and trained on the most predictive variables. We used the model to identify people living with HIV and individuals with a higher likelihood of contracting the disease.

resultsApplication of XGBoost algorithm appeared to significantly improve identification of HIV positivity over the other five algorithms by f1 scoring mean of 90% and 92% for males and females respectively. Amongst the eight most predictor features in both sexes were: age, relationship with family head, the highest level of education, highest grade at that school level, work for payment, avoiding pregnancy, age at the first experience of sex, and wealth quintile. Model performance using these variables increased significantly compared to having all the variables included. We identified five males and 19 females individuals that would require testing to find one HIV positive individual. We also predicted that 4·14% of males and 10.81% of females are at high risk of infection.

conclusionOur findings provide a potential use of the XGBoost algorithm with socio-behavioural-driven data at substantially identifying HIV predictors and predicting individuals at high risk of infection for targeted screening.

Indexed as

Acquired Immunodeficiency SyndromeHIV InfectionsAfrica South of the SaharaFemaleHumansMachine LearningMaleMass ScreeningPregnancyHigh-riskPredictorsScreeningSocio-behavioralXGBoost

Identifiers

PMID34332540
PMCPMC8325403

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.