ArticleThe lancet. HIV2021
Temporal change in population-level prevalence of detectable HIV viraemia and its association with HIV incidence in key populations in India: a serial cross-sectional study.
Article in The lancet. HIV, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 24 citations in OpenAlex.
- HIV, hepatitis B & C in people who inject drugs in India: A systematic review of regional heterogeneity & overview of opioid substitution treatment.The Indian journal of medical research · 2023Pooled it
- Incidence of HIV and hepatitis C virus among people who inject drugs, and associations with age and sex or gender: a global systematic review and meta-analysis.The lancet. Gastroenterology & hepatology · 2023Pooled it
- Use of HIV Recency Assays for HIV Incidence Estimation and Other Surveillance Use Cases: Systematic Review.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Pooled it
- Voucher incentives to improve viral suppression among HIV-positive people who inject drugs and men who have sex with men in India: a cluster randomised trial.The lancet. HIV · 2024Trial
- What, how, and when matters: acceptability and preferences for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among people who inject drugs in New Delhi, India.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Acceptability and Preferences of Long-Acting Injectable Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis and Antiretroviral Therapy Among Men Who Have Sex With Men and People Who Inject Drugs in India: Insights for Future Implementation.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Article
- Estimates and predictors of HIV viral non-suppression in South African adults on antiretroviral treatment.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Article
- Age and gender profiles of HIV infection burden and viraemia: novel metrics for HIV epidemic control in African populations with high antiretroviral therapy coverage.International journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Association between population viral load surrogate indicator and HIV transmission potential: a prospective cohort study in Xinjiang, China.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990-2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.The lancet. HIV · 2024Article
- Persistently high HIV incidence among men who have sex with men and people who inject drugs attending integrated care centres in India: a longitudinal assessment of clinic-based data.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2024Article
- Geospatial and temporal mapping of detectable HIV-1 viral loads amid dolutegravir rollout in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- New HIV Infections Among Key Populations and Their Partners in 2010 and 2022, by World Region: A Multisources Estimation.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- Perceptions and experiences of daily and long-acting pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM in India.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Integration of a geospatially targeted community-based testing approach with respondent-driven sampling to identify people who inject drugs living with HIV and HCV in Patti and Gorakhpur, India.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2023Article
- Reduction in COVID-19 related resource loss and decline in prevalence of probable depression in Chinese adults: an application of the Conservation of Resource Theory.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2023Article
- Article
- A scoping review of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and intersex (LGBTQI+) people's health in India.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Antiretroviral Drug Resistance in HIV Sequences From People Who Inject Drugs and Men Who Have Sex With Men Across 21 Cities in India.Open forum infectious diseases · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
13 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundPopulation-level prevalence of detectable HIV viraemia (PDV) has been proposed as a metric for monitoring the population-level effectiveness of HIV treatment as prevention. We aimed to characterise temporal changes in PDV in people who inject drugs (PWID) and men who have sex with men (MSM) in India and evaluate community-level and individual-level associations with cross-sectional HIV incidence.
methodsWe did a serial cross-sectional study in which baseline (from Oct 1, 2012, to Dec 19, 2013) and follow-up (from Aug 1, 2016, to May 28, 2017) respondent-driven sampling (RDS) surveys were done in MSM (ten community sites) and PWID (12 community sites) across 21 cities in India. Eligible participants were those aged 18 years or older who provided informed consent and possessed a valid RDS referral coupon. Annualised HIV incidence was estimated with validated multiple-assay algorithms. PDV was calculated as the percentage of people with detectable HIV RNA (>150 copies per mL) in a community site. Community-level associations were determined by linear regression. Multivariable, multilevel Poisson regression was used to assess associations with recent HIV infection.
findingsWe recruited 21 990 individuals in the baseline survey and 21 726 individuals in the follow-up survey. The median community-level HIV incidence estimate increased from 0·9% (range 0·0-2·2) at baseline to 1·5% (0·5-3·0) at follow-up in MSM and from 1·6% (0·5-12·4) to 3·6% (0·0-18·4) in PWID. At the community-level, every 1 percentage point increase in baseline PDV and temporal change in PDV between surveys was associated with higher annualised HIV incidence at follow-up: for baseline PDV β=0·41 (95% CI 0·18-0·63) and for change in PDV β=0·52 (0·38-0·66). After accounting for individual-level risk factors, every 10 percentage point increase in baseline PDV and temporal change in PDV was associated with higher individual-level risk of recent HIV infection at follow-up: adjusted risk ratio 1·85 (95% CI 1·44-2·37) for baseline PDV and 1·81 (1·43-2·29) for change in PDV.
interpretationPDV was temporally associated with community-level and individual-level HIV incidence. These data support scale-up of treatment as prevention programmes to reduce HIV incidence and the programmatic use of PDV to monitor community HIV risk potential.
fundingUS National Institutes of Health, Elton John AIDS Foundation.
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