Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34330267›Full record

ArticleBMC medical informatics and decision making2021

The 30-days hospital readmission risk in diabetic patients: predictive modeling with machine learning classifiers.

Yujuan Shang, Kui Jiang, Lei Wang, Zheqing Zhang, Siwei Zhou, Yun Liu, Jiancheng Dong, Huiqun Wu

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
3.5field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 34 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Yujuan Shang *Department of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, 19 Qixiu Road, Nantong, 226001, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.
Kui Jiang *Department of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, 19 Qixiu Road, Nantong, 226001, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.
Lei WangDepartment of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, 19 Qixiu Road, Nantong, 226001, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.
Zheqing ZhangDepartment of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, 19 Qixiu Road, Nantong, 226001, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.
Siwei ZhouDepartment of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, 19 Qixiu Road, Nantong, 226001, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.
Yun LiuDepartment of Information, the First Affiliated Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, No. 300 Guang Zhou Road, Nanjing, 210029, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.
Jiancheng DongDepartment of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, 19 Qixiu Road, Nantong, 226001, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.
Huiqun WuDepartment of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, 19 Qixiu Road, Nantong, 226001, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China. wuhuiqun@ntu.edu.cn.ORCID 0000-0001-5837-6199
Nantong University · CNNanjing Medical University · CN

Funding

National Key R&D Program of China 2018YFC1314900, 2018YFC1314902
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

objectivesDiabetes mellitus is a major chronic disease that results in readmissions due to poor disease control. Here we established and compared machine learning (ML)-based readmission prediction methods to predict readmission risks of diabetic patients.

methodsThe dataset analyzed in this study was acquired from the Health Facts Database, which includes over 100,000 records of diabetic patients from 1999 to 2008. The basic data distribution characteristics of this dataset were summarized and then analyzed. In this study, 30-days readmission was defined as a readmission period of less than 30 days. After data preprocessing and normalization, multiple risk factors in the dataset were examined for classifier training to predict the probability of readmission using ML models. Different ML classifiers such as random forest, Naive Bayes, and decision tree ensemble were adopted to improve the clinical efficiency of the classification. In this study, the Konstanz Information Miner platform was used to preprocess and model the data, and the performances of the different classifiers were compared.

resultsA total of 100,244 records were included in the model construction after the data preprocessing and normalization. A total of 23 attributes, including race, sex, age, admission type, admission location, length of stay, and drug use, were finally identified as modeling risk factors. Comparison of the performance indexes of the three algorithms revealed that the RF model had the best performance with a higher area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) than the other two algorithms, suggesting that its use is more suitable for making readmission predictions.

conclusionThe factors influencing 30-days readmission predictions in diabetic patients, including number of inpatient admissions, age, diagnosis, number of emergencies, and sex, would help healthcare providers to identify patients who are at high risk of short-term readmission and reduce the probability of 30-days readmission. The RF algorithm with the highest AUC is more suitable for making 30-days readmission predictions and  deserves further validation in clinical trials.

Indexed as

Diabetes MellitusPatient ReadmissionBayes TheoremHumansMachine LearningRisk FactorsDiabetesMachine learningPrediction modelReadmission

Identifiers

PMID34330267
PMCPMC8323261
OpenAlexW3185642215

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.