ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific2021
Tuberculosis in the Western Pacific Region: Estimating the burden of disease and return on investment 2020-2030 in four countries.
Article in The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Systematic review of bovine and zoonotic tuberculosis in the Western Pacific and the Southeast Asia regions of the World Health Organization.Frontiers in public health · 2024Pooled it
- In-kind Nutritional Supplementation for Persons With Drug-susceptible Tuberculosis and Their Household Contacts Would be Cost-effective for Reducing Tuberculosis Incidence and Mortality in Jharkhand, India: A Modeling Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- Article
- Infectious disease research in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations region: a scientometric analysis.Osong public health and research perspectives · 2024Article
- Possibilities and limits of modelling of long-range economic consequences of air pollution - A case study.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Economic evaluation of a community health worker model for tuberculosis care in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam: a mixed-methods Social Return on Investment Analysis.BMC public health · 2023Article
- The Macroeconomic Impact of Increasing Investments in Malaria Control in 26 High Malaria Burden Countries: An Application of the Updated EPIC Model.International journal of health policy and management · 2023Article
- Call for more investment in cost-effective tuberculosis care.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2021Article
- Financing for tuberculosis prevention, diagnosis and treatment services in the Western Pacific Region in 2005-2020.Western Pacific surveillance and response journal : WPSARArticle
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWe aimed to estimate the disease burden of Tuberculosis (TB) and return on investment of TB care in selected high-burden countries of the Western Pacific Region (WPR) until 2030.
methodsWe projected the TB epidemic in Viet Nam and Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) 2020-2030 using a mathematical model under various scenarios: counterfactual (no TB care); baseline (TB care continues at current levels); and 12 different diagnosis and treatment interventions. We retrieved previous modeling results for China and the Philippines. We pooled the new and existing information on incidence and deaths in the four countries, covering >80% of the TB burden in WPR. We estimated the return on investment of TB care and interventions in Viet Nam and Lao PDR using a Solow model.
findingsIn the baseline scenario, TB incidence in the four countries decreased from 97•0/100,000/year (2019) to 90•1/100,000/year (2030), and TB deaths from 83,300/year (2019) to 71,100/year (2030). Active case finding (ACF) strategies (screening people not seeking care for respiratory symptoms) were the most effective single interventions. Return on investment (2020-2030) for TB care in Viet Nam and Lao PDR ranged US$4-US$49/dollar spent; additional interventions brought up to US$2•7/dollar spent.
interpretationIn the modeled countries, TB incidence will only modestly decrease without additional interventions. Interventions that include ACF can reduce TB burden but achieving the End TB incidence and mortality targets will be difficult without new transformational tools (e.g. vaccine, new diagnostic tools, shorter treatment). However, TB care, even at its current level, can bring a multiple-fold return on investment.
fundingWorld Health Organization Western Pacific Regional Office; Swiss National Science Foundation Grant 163878.
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