ArticleOpen forum infectious diseases2021
A Prognostic Model to Assess Long-Term Survival of Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy: A 15-Year Retrospective Cohort Study in Southwestern China.
Article in Open forum infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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9 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundBecause there is no assessment tool for survival of people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) in rural southwestern China, we aimed to formulate and validate a simple-to-use model to predict long-term overall survival at the initiation of ART.
methodsIn total, 36 268 eligible participants registered in the Guangxi autonomous region between December 2003 and December 2018 were enrolled and randomized into development and validation cohorts. Predictive variables were determined based on Cox hazard models and specialists' advice. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were measured, respectively.
resultsThe prognostic combined 14 variables: sex, age, marital status, infectious route, opportunistic infection, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related symptoms, body mass index, CD4
conclusionsThe prognostic model incorporating routine baseline data can provide a useful tool for early risk appraisal and treatment management in ART in rural southwestern China. Moreover, our study underscores the role of non-AIDS-defining events in long-term survival in ART.
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