ArticleTheoretical biology & medical modelling2021
Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply.
Article in Theoretical biology & medical modelling, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 41 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Estimating the potential public health and economic impact of vaccination timing: A modeling study of COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- Optimal Timing of Vaccination: A Narrative Review of Integrating Strategies for COVID-19, Influenza, and Respiratory Syncytial Virus.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2025Review
- Healthcare workers safety: a cohort study using healthcare utilisation databases on vaccination and vaccine timeliness impact against SARS-CoV-2 infection.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Article
- Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 Pandemic: Interpreting Vaccination Strategies in a Nationwide Demographic Study.Vaccines · 2024Article
- Understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocation.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Wave under Vaccination Effects.Computation (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Article
- A time-delayed model for the spread of COVID-19 with vaccination.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Near real time monitoring and forecasting for COVID-19 situational awareness.Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England) · 2022Article
- From pandemic to a new normal: Strategies to optimise governmental interventions in Indonesia based on an SVEIQHR-type mathematical model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine dose.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Article
- Role of vitamin C in preventing of COVID-19 infection, progression and severity.AIMS microbiology · 2022Review
- COVID-19 underreporting and its impact on vaccination strategies.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- The impact of COVID-19 vaccination delay: A data-driven modeling analysis for Chicago and New York City.Vaccine · 2021Article
- Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAt the moment we have more than 177 million cases and 3.8 million deaths (as of June 2021) around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far.
methodsWe propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths due to the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations.
resultsThe model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths will occur by the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithmic fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole.
conclusionsOur model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.
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