Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34325687›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2021

A heat-health watch and warning system with extended season and evolving thresholds.

Mahamat Abdelkerim Issa, Fateh Chebana, Pierre Masselot, Céline Campagna, Éric Lavigne, Pierre Gosselin, Taha B M J Ouarda

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.8field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 26 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Review
  4. Lethal Heat and Humidity Events.Annual review of environment and resources · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Mahamat Abdelkerim IssaCentre Eau-Terre-Environnement, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Québec City, Canada. Mahamat_Abdelkerim.Issa@inrs.ca.ORCID 0000-0002-3126-9438
Fateh ChebanaCentre Eau-Terre-Environnement, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Québec City, Canada.
Pierre MasselotCentre Eau-Terre-Environnement, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Québec City, Canada.
Céline CampagnaCentre Eau-Terre-Environnement, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Québec City, Canada.
Éric LavigneSchool of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada.
Pierre GosselinCentre Eau-Terre-Environnement, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Québec City, Canada.
Taha B M J OuardaCentre Eau-Terre-Environnement, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Québec City, Canada.
Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique · CAUniversity of Ottawa · CA

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMany countries have developed heat-health watch and warning systems (HHWWS) or early-warning systems to mitigate the health consequences of extreme heat events. HHWWS usually focuses on the four hottest months of the year and imposes the same threshold over these months. However, according to climate projections, the warm season is expected to extend and/or shift. Some studies demonstrated that health impacts of heat waves are more severe when the human body is not acclimatized to the heat. In order to adapt those systems to potential heat waves occurring outside the hottest months of the season, this study proposes specific health-based monthly heat indicators and thresholds over an extended season from April to October in the northern hemisphere.

methodsThe proposed approach, an adoption and extension of the HHWWS methodology currently implemented in Quebec (Canada). The latter is developed and applied to the Greater Montreal area (current population 4.3 million) based on historical health and meteorological data over the years. This approach consists of determining excess mortality episodes and then choosing monthly indicators and thresholds that may involve excess mortality.

resultsWe obtain thresholds for the maximum and minimum temperature couple (in °C) that range from (respectively, 23 and 12) in April, to (32 and 21) in July and back to (25 and 13) in October. The resulting HHWWS is flexible, with health-related thresholds taking into account the seasonality and the monthly variability of temperatures over an extended summer season.

conclusionsThis adaptive and more realistic system has the potential to prevent, by data-driven health alerts, heat-related mortality outside the typical July-August months of heat waves. The proposed methodology is general and can be applied to other regions and situations based on their characteristics.

Indexed as

Extreme HeatHot TemperatureCanadaHumansMortalityQuebecSeasonsClimateHealthHeat waveMethodsMortalitySeasonalityThresholdsWarning systems

Identifiers

PMID34325687
PMCPMC8320165
OpenAlexW3118422412

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.