ArticlePloS one2021
Modeling neutral viral mutations in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modeling two-strain competition with reinfection: Mathematical analyses and epidemiological implications.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Deep learning architectures for influenza dynamics and treatment optimization: a comprehensive review.Frontiers in artificial intelligence · 2025Review
- Spreading processes with mutations over multilayer networks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- A mathematical model for COVID-19 considering waning immunity, vaccination and control measures.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- The Trade-Off between Airborne Pandemic Control and Energy Consumption Using Air Ventilation Solutions.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Population genetic models for the spatial spread of adaptive variants: A review in light of SARS-CoV-2 evolution.PLoS genetics · 2022Review
- Modeling the Transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in a Partially Vaccinated Population.Viruses · 2022Article
- Mutational landscape and in silico structure models of SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor binding domain reveal key molecular determinants for virus-host interaction.BMC molecular and cell biology · 2022Article
- Article
- Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection, and containment policy design.Journal of economic interaction and coordination · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Although traditional models of epidemic spreading focus on the number of infected, susceptible and recovered individuals, a lot of attention has been devoted to integrate epidemic models with population genetics. Here we develop an individual-based model for epidemic spreading on networks in which viruses are explicitly represented by finite chains of nucleotides that can mutate inside the host. Under the hypothesis of neutral evolution we compute analytically the average pairwise genetic distance between all infecting viruses over time. We also derive a mean-field version of this equation that can be added directly to compartmental models such as SIR or SEIR to estimate the genetic evolution. We compare our results with the inferred genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 at the beginning of the epidemic in China and found good agreement with the analytical solution of our model. Finally, using genetic distance as a proxy for different strains, we use numerical simulations to show that the lower the connectivity between communities, e.g., cities, the higher the probability of reinfection.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.