ArticlePloS one2021
Breakpoint modelling of temporal associations between non-pharmaceutical interventions and symptomatic COVID-19 incidence in the Republic of Ireland.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- What Lessons can Be Learned From the Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic?International journal of public health · 2025Review
- Influence of Seasonality and Public-Health Interventions on the COVID-19 Pandemic in Northern Europe.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) for Population Health and Health Inequalities.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Review
- COVID-19 preparedness and response in rural and remote areas: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundTo constrain propagation and mitigate the burden of COVID-19, most countries initiated and continue to implement several non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including national and regional lockdowns. In the Republic of Ireland, the first national lockdown was decreed on 23rd of March 2020, followed by a succession of restriction increases and decreases (phases) over the following year. To date, the effects of these interventions remain unclear, and particularly within differing population subsets. The current study sought to assess the impact of individual NPI phases on COVID-19 transmission patterns within delineated population subgroups in the Republic of Ireland. METHODS AND
findingsConfirmed, anonymised COVID-19 cases occurring between the 29th of February 2020 and 30th November 2020 (n = 72,654) were obtained. Segmented modelling via breakpoint regression with multiple turning points was employed to identify structural breaks across sub-populations, including primary/secondary infections, age deciles, urban/commuter/rural areas, patients with underlying health conditions, and socio-demographic profiles. These were subsequently compared with initiation dates of eight overarching NPI phases. Five distinct breakpoints were identified. The first breakpoint, associated with a decrease in the daily COVID-19 incidence, was reported within 14 days of the first set of restrictions in mid-March 2020 for most population sub-groups. Results suggest that moderately strict NPIs were more effective than the strictest Phase 5 (National Lockdown). Divergences were observed across population sub-groups; lagged response times were observed among populations >80 years, residents of rural/ commuter regions, and cases associated with a below-median deprivation score.
conclusionsStudy findings suggest that many NPIs have been successful in decreasing COVID-19 incidence rates, however the strictest Phase 5 NPI was not. Moreover, NPIs were not equally successful across all sub-populations, with differing response times noted. Future strategies and interventions may need to be increasingly bespoke, based on sub-population profiles and required responses.
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