ArticleInfection and drug resistance2021
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of the Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease Morbidity in China Using An Advanced Exponential Smoothing State Space TBATS Model.
Article in Infection and drug resistance, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Analyzing Global Threat of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Infection: A Comparative Study of a Time Series Model and Machine Learning Models Across 10 High-Risk Countries.Current microbiology · 2026Article
- Forecasting Tuberculosis Incidence in Somalia: A Comparative Analysis of Single and Hybrid Time-Series Models.Health science reports · 2026Article
- Modeling the seasonal epidemic of human brucellosis in China: A comparative time series analysis.PloS one · 2026Article
- Hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in mainland China: temporal trends and projections to 2030.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Modeling and Forecasting Dead-on-Arrival in Broilers Using Time Series Methods: A Case Study from Thailand.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025Article
- Developing a seasonal-adjusted machine-learning-based hybrid time‑series model to forecast heatwave warning.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Predicting the epidemiological trend of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China using Bayesian structural time-series model.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Spatial-temporal analysis of hepatitis E in Hainan Province, China (2013-2022): insights from four major hospitals.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Research on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence forecasting using hybrid model in mainland China.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Time series analysis and forecasting of the number of canine rabies confirmed cases in Thailand based on national-level surveillance data.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2023Article
- The research on TBATS and ELM models for prediction of human brucellosis cases in mainland China: a time series study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
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- Spatiotemporal cluster patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease at the province level in mainland China, 2011-2018.PloS one · 2022Article
- Estimating the Long-Term Epidemiological Trends and Seasonality of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in China.Infection and drug resistance · 2021Article
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9 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveThe high morbidity, complex seasonality, and recurring risk of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) exert a major burden in China. Forecasting its epidemic trends is greatly instrumental in informing vaccine and targeted interventions. This study sets out to investigate the usefulness of an advanced exponential smoothing state space framework by combining Box-Cox transformations, Fourier representations with time-varying coefficients and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) error correction (TBATS) method to assess the temporal trends of HFMD in China.
methodsData from January 2009 to December 2019 were drawn, and then they were split into two segments comprising the in-sample training data and out-of-sample testing data to develop and validate the TBATS model, and its fitting and forecasting abilities were compared with the most frequently used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) method.
resultsFollowing the modelling procedures of the SARIMA and TBATS methods, the SARIMA (1,0,1)(0,1,1)
conclusionThe TBATS model has the capacity to outperform the most frequently used SARIMA model in forecasting the HFMD incidence in China, and it can be recommended as a flexible and useful tool in the decision-making process of HFMD prevention and control in China.
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