Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34321195›Full record

ArticleScience advances2021

Interdependent program evaluation: Geographic and social spillovers in COVID-19 closures and reopenings in the United States.

Michael Zhao, David Holtz, Sinan Aral

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Michael ZhaoMIT Initiative on the Digital Economy, 100 Main St., Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9254-4659
David HoltzHaas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, 2220 Piedmont Ave., Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0896-8628
Sinan AralMIT Initiative on the Digital Economy, 100 Main St., Cambridge, MA 02142, USA. sinan@mit.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2762-058X

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In an interconnected world, understanding policy spillovers is essential. We propose a program evaluation framework to measure policy spillover effects and apply that framework to study the governmental responses to COVID-19 in the United States. Our analysis suggests the presence of social spillovers. We estimate that while state closures directly reduced mobility by 3 to 4%, all other states locking down further decreased mobility in the focal state by 8 to 14%. Similarly, while reopening directly increased mobility by 2 to 3%, all other states' reopening increased mobility in the focal state by 12 to 21%. Our analysis also suggests geographic spillovers: Travel from locked down origins to open destinations increased by 12 to 29%. In contrast, travel from reopened origins to locked down destinations decreased by 6 to 7% for nearby counties and by 14 to 18% for distant counties. Despite its limitations, we believe that our approach takes the first steps toward creating a framework for interdependent program evaluation across policy domains.

Identifiers

PMID34321195
PMCPMC8318369

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.