Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34316325›Full record

ArticleWeather, climate, and society (Print)2021

Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change.

Morgan E Gorris, James E Neumann, Patrick L Kinney, Megan Sheahan, Marcus C Sarofim

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Weather, climate, and society (Print), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Urban soils along the Kern River and Los Gatos Creek are hotspots forApplied and environmental microbiology · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Urban soils along the Kern River and Los Gatos Creek are hotspots forbioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Early immune response toMicrobiology spectrum · 2025
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. WasmBio · 2023
    Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Morgan E GorrisLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico.
James E NeumannIndustrial Economics, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Patrick L KinneyDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts.
Megan SheahanIndustrial Economics, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Marcus C SarofimU.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.

Funding

Intramural EPA EPA999999
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Coccidioidomycosis, or valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western United States, putting more people at risk for contracting valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a method to estimate economic impacts of valley fever that is based on case counts. For our 2000-15 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for valley fever in the United States were $400,000 per case, and the annual average total cost was $3.9 billion per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by 2090. By the end of the twenty-first century, valley fever may cost $620,000 per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate change-attributable damages in the United States.

Indexed as

Climate servicesDecision supportDiseaseEconomic valuePlanningRisk assessment

Identifiers

PMID34316325
PMCPMC8311625

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.