Prevalence and early-life determinants of mid-life multimorbidity: evidence from the 1970 British birth cohort.

backgroundWe sought to: [1] estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity at age 46-48 in the 1970 British Cohort Study-a nationally representative sample in mid-life; and [2] examine the association between early-life characteristics and mid-life multimorbidity.

methodA prospective longitudinal birth cohort of a community-based sample from the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70). Participants included all surviving children born in mainland Britain in a single week in April 1970; the analytical sample included those with valid data at age 46-48 (n = 7951; 2016-2018). The main outcome was multimorbidity, which was operationalised as a binary indicator of two or more long-term health conditions where at least one of these conditions was of physical health. It also included symptom complexes (e.g., chronic pain), sensory impairments, and alcohol problems.

resultsPrevalence of mid-life multimorbidity was 33.8% at age 46-48. Those with fathers from unskilled social occupational class (vs professional) at birth had 43% higher risk of mid-life multimorbidity (risk ratio = 1.43, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.77). After accounting for potential child and family confounding, an additional kilogram of birthweight was associated with 10% reduced risk of multimorbidity (risk ratio = 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.84 to 0.96); a decrease of one body mass index point at age 10 was associated with 3% lower risk (risk ratio = 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.05); one standard deviation higher cognitive ability score at age 10 corresponded to 4% lower risk (risk ratio = 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.00); an increase of one internalising problem at age 16 was equated with 4% higher risk (risk ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.08) and of one externalising problem at age 16 with 6% higher risk (risk ratio = 1.06, 1.03 to 1.09).

conclusionPrevalence of multimorbidity was high in mid-life (33.8% at age 46-48) in Britain. Potentially modifiable early-life exposures, including early-life social circumstances, cognitive, physical and emotional development, were associated with elevated risk of mid-life multimorbidity.