ArticleEuropean spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society2021
Expected impact of lockdown measures due to COVID-19 on disabling conditions: a modelling study of chronic low back pain.
Article in European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 3 citations in OpenAlex.
- COVID-19 Pandemic Increases the Impact of Low Back Pain: A Systematic Review and Metanalysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Short-term impact of COVID-19 pandemic on low back pain: data from the PAMPA Cohort, Brazil.BMC public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
purposeThe COVID-19 pandemic and the containment measures such as social distancing, mobility restrictions and quarantine have significantly impacted the delivery of healthcare services, with possible negative effects on low back pain patients. In this study, we used an innovative agent-based model to quantify the effects of COVID-19 on the prevalence and severity of low back pain in the general population.
methodsEpidemiological data were used to simulate the low back pain evolution in a population of 300,000 agents. Reduced access to treatment due to the containment measures was simulated with a probabilistic approach, in which 500 random scenarios (differing in: length of the lockdown, probability of having access to treatment, time before the resumption of treatment, duration of the effects of the treatment after its interruption) were simulated.
resultsThe lockdown may increase the mean pain score higher than 1/10 points for patients suffering from acute low back pain, up to 4-5/10 points for specific individuals. The lockdown also affected the length of pain episodes, possibly impacting chronicity and disability. All the variables describing the random scenarios had a relevant impact in determining both the increase of pain intensity in the population and the length of the effects of the lockdown.
conclusions"Optimal lockdown parameters" which minimize the impact on low back pain while preserving the effects on infection spread and mortality could not be identified. Policies favouring a prompt resumption of treatments after the lockdown may be effective in shortening the duration of its negative effects.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.