ArticleNature ecology & evolution2021
Spatial models of giant pandas under current and future conditions reveal extinction risks.
Article in Nature ecology & evolution, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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16 citing papers in PubMed, 56 citations in OpenAlex.
- Safeguarding a Flagship Species: Integrated Surveillance of Cross-Species Pathogen Transmission in Giant Panda Ecosystems.Ecology and evolution · 2026Review
- Taxonomic and Biogeographic Misconceptions in Qinling Lenok (Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Limited and biased global conservation funding means most threatened species remain unsupported.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Population dynamics and the role of protected areas in China's milu deer (Elaphurus davidianus) rewilding.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Article
- Generation and characterization of giant panda induced pluripotent stem cells.Science advances · 2024Article
- Large-scale genome sequencing of giant pandas improves the understanding of population structure and future conservation initiatives.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Facilitating giant panda crossings of national highway in Wolong area of Giant Panda National Park amid human activities.Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Distribution Pattern of Suitable Areas and Corridor Identification of EndangeredPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Spatial distribution dynamics forEcology and evolution · 2024Article
- Research on the Changes in Distribution and Habitat Suitability of the Chinese Red Panda Population.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2024Article
- The Science Underlying Giant Panda Conservation Translocations.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Review
- Priority planting area planning for cash crops under heavy metal pollution and climate change: A case study ofFrontiers in plant science · 2023Article
- Landscape-scale giant panda conservation based on metapopulations within China's national park system.Science advances · 2022Article
- Identifying core habitats and corridors for giant pandas by combining multiscale random forest and connectivity analysis.Ecology and evolution · 2022Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In addition to habitat loss and fragmentation, demographic processes-the vagaries of births, deaths and sex ratio fluctuations-pose substantial threats to wild giant panda populations. Additionally, climate change and plans for the Giant Panda National Park may influence (in opposing directions) the extinction risk for wild giant pandas. The Fourth National Giant Panda Census showed pandas living in 33 isolated populations. An estimated 259 animals live in 25 of these groups, ~14% of the total population. We used individual-based models to simulate time series of these small populations for 100 years. We analysed the spatial pattern of their risk of extinction under current conditions and multiple climate change models. Furthermore, we consider the impact of the proposed Giant Panda National Park. Results showed that 15 populations face a risk >90%, and for 3 other populations the risk is >50%. Of the 15 most at-risk populations, national parks can protect only 3. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario, the 33 populations will probably further divide into 56 populations. Some 41 of them will face a risk >50% and 35 face a risk >90%. Although national parks will probably connect some fragmented habitats, 26 populations will be outside national park planning. Our study gives practical advice for conservation policies and management and has implications for the conservation of other species in the world that live in isolated, fragmented habitats.
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