Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34312386›Full record

ArticleNature communications2021

Irrigated areas drive irrigation water withdrawals.

Arnald Puy, Emanuele Borgonovo, Samuele Lo Piano, Simon A Levin, Andrea Saltelli

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Arnald PuyDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, NJ, USA. apuy@princeton.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9469-2156
Emanuele BorgonovoDepartment of Decision Sciences and BIDSA, Boconi University, Milan, Italy.
Samuele Lo PianoSchool of the Built Environment, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom.
Simon A LevinDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, NJ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8216-5639
Andrea SaltelliOpen Evidence Research, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC), Barcelona, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4222-6975

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A sustainable management of global freshwater resources requires reliable estimates of the water demanded by irrigated agriculture. This has been attempted by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) through country surveys and censuses, or through Global Models, which compute irrigation water withdrawals with sub-models on crop types and calendars, evapotranspiration, irrigation efficiencies, weather data and irrigated areas, among others. Here we demonstrate that these strategies err on the side of excess complexity, as the values reported by FAO and outputted by Global Models are largely conditioned by irrigated areas and their uncertainty. Modelling irrigation water withdrawals as a function of irrigated areas yields almost the same results in a much parsimonious way, while permitting the exploration of all model uncertainties. Our work offers a robust and more transparent approach to estimate one of the most important indicators guiding our policies on water security worldwide.

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.