Observational studyBMJ open2021
Development of a healthcare system COVID Hotspotting Score in California: an observational study with prospective validation.
Observational study in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- AI-Enabled Diagnostic Prediction within Electronic Health Records to Enhance Biosurveillance and Early Outbreak Detection.Research square · 2025Article
- AI-Enabled Diagnostic Prediction within Electronic Health Records to Enhance Biosurveillance and Early Outbreak Detection.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Using Primary Care Clinical Text Data and Natural Language Processing to Identify Indicators of COVID-19 in Toronto, Canada.PLOS digital health · 2022Article
- The Intersection of Quality and Research in the Era of COVID-19: A Virtuous Cycle.The Permanente journal · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo examine the value of health systems data as indicators of emerging COVID-19 activity.
designObservational study of health system indicators for the COVID Hotspotting Score (CHOTS) with prospective validation. SETTING AND
participantsAn integrated healthcare delivery system in Northern California including 21 hospitals and 4.5 million members.
main outcome measuresThe CHOTS incorporated 10 variables including four major (cough/cold calls, emails, new positive COVID-19 tests, COVID-19 hospital census) and six minor (COVID-19 calls, respiratory infection and COVID-19 routine and urgent visits, and respiratory viral testing) indicators assessed with change point detection and slope metrics. We quantified cross-correlations lagged by 7-42 days between CHOTS and standardised COVID-19 hospital census using observational data from 1 April to 31 May 2020 and two waves of prospective data through 21 March 2021.
resultsThrough 30 September 2020, peak cross-correlation between CHOTS and COVID-19 hospital census occurred with a 28-day lag at 0.78; at 42 days, the correlation was 0.69. Lagged correlation between medical centre CHOTS and their COVID-19 census was highest at 42 days for one facility (0.63), at 35 days for nine facilities (0.52-0.73), at 28 days for eight facilities (0.28-0.74) and at 14 days for two facilities (0.73-0.78). The strongest correlation for individual indicators was 0.94 (COVID-19 census) and 0.90 (new positive COVID-19 tests) lagged 1-14 days and 0.83 for COVID-19 calls and urgent clinic visits lagged 14-28 days. Cross-correlation was similar (0.73) with a 35-day lag using prospective validation from 1 October 2020 to 21 March 2021.
conclusionsPassively collected health system indicators were strongly correlated with forthcoming COVID-19 hospital census up to 6 weeks before three successive COVID-19 waves. These tools could inform communities, health systems and public health officials to identify, prepare for and mitigate emerging COVID-19 activity.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.