ArticleEuropean journal of epidemiology2021
Dementia risk in the general population: large-scale external validation of prediction models in the AGES-Reykjavik study.
Article in European journal of epidemiology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Radiomics for differentiating ruptured intracranial aneurysms: overview, methodological quality evaluation using METRICS and RQS, and feature transportability validation using independent multi-center dataset.European radiology · 2026Pooled it
- Discriminative performance of externally validated dementia risk prediction models: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Latent profiles of modifiable dementia risk factors in later midlife: relationships with incident dementia, cognition, and neuroimaging outcomes.Molecular psychiatry · 2025Article
- Predicting incident dementia in community-dwelling older adults using primary and secondary care data from electronic health records.Brain communications · 2025Article
- Article
- How many future dementia cases would be missed by a high-risk screening program? A retrospective cohort study in a population-based cohort.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2024Article
- Associations of plasma NfL, GFAP, and t-tau with cerebral small vessel disease and incident dementia: longitudinal data of the AGES-Reykjavik Study.GeroScience · 2024Article
- Article
- Dementia prediction in the general population using clinically accessible variables: a proof-of-concept study using machine learning. The AGES-Reykjavik study.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2023Article
- Development and validation of a dementia risk score in the UK Biobank and Whitehall II cohorts.BMJ mental health · 2023Article
- Article
- Dementia Risk Models in an Australian First Nations Population: Cross-Sectional Associations and Preparation for Follow-Up.Journal of Alzheimer's disease reports · 2023Article
- What's New in Dementia Risk Prediction Modelling? An Updated Systematic Review.Dementia and geriatric cognitive disorders extraReview
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We aimed to evaluate the external performance of prediction models for all-cause dementia or AD in the general population, which can aid selection of high-risk individuals for clinical trials and prevention. We identified 17 out of 36 eligible published prognostic models for external validation in the population-based AGES-Reykjavik Study. Predictive performance was assessed with c statistics and calibration plots. All five models with a c statistic > .75 (.76-.81) contained cognitive testing as a predictor, while all models with lower c statistics (.67-.75) did not. Calibration ranged from good to poor across all models, including systematic risk overestimation or overestimation for particularly the highest risk group. Models that overestimate risk may be acceptable for exclusion purposes, but lack the ability to accurately identify individuals at higher dementia risk. Both updating existing models or developing new models aimed at identifying high-risk individuals, as well as more external validation studies of dementia prediction models are warranted.
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