Analyzing Sequence Data with Markov Chain Models in Scientific Experiments.

Virtual reality-based instruction is becoming an important resource to improve learning outcomes and communicate hands-on skills in science laboratory courses. Our study attempts first to investigate whether a Markov chain model can predict the students' performance in conducting an experiment and whether simulations improve learner achievement in handling lab equipment and conducting science experiments in physical labs. In the present study, three cohorts of graduate students are trained on a microscopy experiment using different teaching methodologies. The effectiveness of the teaching strategies is evaluated by observing the sequences of students' actions, while engaging in the microscopy experiment in real-lab situations. The students' ability in performing the science experiment is estimated by sequential analysis using a Markov chain model. According to the Markov chain analysis, the students who are trained via a virtual reality software exhibit a higher probability to perform the steps of the experiment without difficulty and without assistance than their fellow students who attend more traditional training scenarios. Our study indicates that a Markov chain model is a powerful tool that can lead to a dynamic evaluation of the students' performance in science experiments by tracing the students' knowledge states and by predicting their innate abilities.