ArticleApplied soft computing2021
Forecasting fully vaccinated people against COVID-19 and examining future vaccination rate for herd immunity in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World.
Article in Applied soft computing, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers.
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Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed.
- Measuring influencing factors affecting mortality rates during the COVID-19 pandemic.Global health action · 2024Article
- Spatio-temporal analysis of COVID-19 lockdown effect to survive in the US counties using ANN.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 based on policy, vaccination, and Omicron data.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Evaluation of Immune Response to Mucosal Immunization with an Oral Probiotic-Based Vaccine in Mice: Potential for Prime-Boost Immunization against SARS-CoV-2.International journal of molecular sciences · 2023Article
- Using COVID-19 Vaccine Attitudes on Twitter to Improve Vaccine Uptake Forecast Models in the United States: Infodemiology Study of Tweets.JMIR infodemiology · 2023Article
- Vaccine rate forecast for COVID-19 in Africa using hybrid forecasting models.African health sciences · 2023Article
- [Perinatal and neonatal management plan for prevention and control of SARS-CoV-2 infection (3rd Edition)].Zhongguo dang dai er ke za zhi = Chinese journal of contemporary pediatrics · 2023Article
- Global emerging Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2: Impacts, challenges and strategies.Journal of infection and public health · 2023Review
- An optimization framework for COVID-19 vaccine allocation and inventory management: A case study.Applied soft computing · 2023Article
- Forecasting the COVID-19 vaccine uptake rate: an infodemiological study in the US.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2022Article
- Medical and non-medical students' knowledge, attitude and willingness towards the COVID-19 vaccine in China: a cross-sectional online survey.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2022Article
- Prediction of global omicron pandemic using ARIMA, MLR, and Prophet models.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Application of a data-driven XGBoost model for the prediction of COVID-19 in the USA: a time-series study.BMJ open · 2022Article
- An index of access to essential infrastructure to identify where physical distancing is impossible.Nature communications · 2022Article
- A new approach for determining SARS-CoV-2 epitopes using machine learning-based in silico methods.Computational biology and chemistry · 2022Article
- Mathematical Modeling to Predict COVID-19 Infection and Vaccination Trends.Journal of clinical medicine · 2022Article
- Comparison of Rapid Nucleic Acid Extraction Methods for SARS-CoV-2 Detection by RT-qPCR.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Prediction intervals of the COVID-19 cases by HAR models with growth rates and vaccination rates in top eight affected countries: Bootstrap improvement.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- A novel ensemble fuzzy classification model in SARS-CoV-2 B-cell epitope identification for development of protein-based vaccine.Applied soft computing · 2022Article
- Discovery of 9,10-dihydrophenanthrene derivatives as SARS-CoV-2 3CLEuropean journal of medicinal chemistry · 2022Article
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Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) has spread rapidly all over the world and it is known that the most effective way to eliminate the disease is vaccination. Although the traditional vaccine development process is quite long, more than ten COVID-19 vaccines have been approved for use in about a year. The COVID-19 vaccines that have been administered are highly effective enough, but achieving herd immunity is required to end the pandemic. The motivation of this study is to contribute to review the countries' vaccine policies and adjusting the manufacturing plans of the vaccine companies. In this study, the total number of people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 was forecasted in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, which is a new approach in vaccination studies. Additionally, for herd immunity, the percentage of fully vaccinated people in these regions at the beginning of 2021 summer was determined. ARIMA results show that in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World will reach 139 million, 109 million, 127 million, 8 million, 38 million, and 441 million people will be fully vaccinated on 1 June 2021, respectively. According to these results, 41.8% of the US, 2.3% of Asia, 17% of Europe, 0.6% of Africa, 8.8% of South America, and 5.6% of the World population will be fully vaccinated people against the COVID-19. Results show that countries are far from the herd immunity threshold level desired to reach for safely slow or stop the COVID-19 epidemic.
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