Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34298709›Full record

ArticleCancers2021

Individual 5-Year Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model in Korea Using a Nationwide Representative Database.

Yohwan Yeo, Dong Wook Shin, Kyungdo Han, Sang Hyun Park, Keun-Hye Jeon, Jungkwon Lee, Junghyun Kim, Aesun Shin

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancers, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Risk prediction for lung cancer screening: a systematic review and meta-regression.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2026
    Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Lung cancer occurrence after an episode of tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2022
    Pooled it
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Increased Lung Cancer Risk and Associated Risk Factors in Tuberculosis Survivors: A Korean Population-Based Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Yohwan YeoDepartment of Family Medicine & Supportive Care Center, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul 06351, Korea.
Dong Wook ShinDepartment of Family Medicine & Supportive Care Center, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul 06351, Korea.
Kyungdo HanDepartment of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Soongsil University, Seoul 06978, Korea.
Sang Hyun ParkDepartment of Medical Statistics, College of Medicine, Catholic University of Korea, Seoul 06591, Korea.
Keun-Hye JeonDepartment of Family Medicine, CHA Gumi Medical Center, Gumi 39295, Korea.
Jungkwon LeeBucheon Geriatric Medical Center, Bucheon 14478, Korea.ORCID 0000-0001-5503-9605
Junghyun KimDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, National Medical Center, Seoul 04564, Korea.
Aesun ShinDepartment of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul 03080, Korea.ORCID 0000-0002-6426-1969

Funding

Korean Cancer Association CB-2017-C-1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Early detection of lung cancer by screening has contributed to reduce lung cancer mortality. Identifying high risk subjects for lung cancer is necessary to maximize the benefits and minimize the harms followed by lung cancer screening. In the present study, individual lung cancer risk in Korea was presented using a risk prediction model. Participants who completed health examinations in 2009 based on the Korean National Health Insurance (KNHI) database (DB) were eligible for the present study. Risk scores were assigned based on the adjusted hazard ratio (HR), and the standardized points for each risk factor were calculated to be proportional to the b coefficients. Model discrimination was assessed using the concordance statistic (c-statistic), and calibration ability assessed by plotting the mean predicted probability against the mean observed probability of lung cancer. Among candidate predictors, age, sex, smoking intensity, body mass index (BMI), presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) were finally included. Our risk prediction model showed good discrimination (c-statistic, 0.810; 95% CI: 0.801-0.819). The relationship between model-predicted and actual lung cancer development correlated well in the calibration plot. When using easily accessible and modifiable risk factors, this model can help individuals make decisions regarding lung cancer screening or lifestyle modification, including smoking cessation.

Indexed as

decision aidslung cancerpersonalized riskprediction

Identifiers

PMID34298709
PMCPMC8307783

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.